Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting at the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, on June 14.Alexander Zemlianichenko/The Associated Press
Conservative Party supporters in Canada are more exposed to Russian propaganda than Liberals or New Democrats and more likely to believe Kremlin-directed narratives designed to undermine Western support for Ukraine, new polling suggests.
Since Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, Moscow has steadily intensified information warfare efforts targeting Ukraine, the NATO military alliance and Western democratic allies including Canada. This disinformation campaign, chiefly through social media, has escalated since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale military assault against Ukraine that began in February, 2022.
Between March 7 and 13, DisinfoWatch, a disinformation monitoring and debunking project at the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute think tank, and the Canadian Digital Media Research Network, an independent research initiative that is part of the Canadian government’s plan to tackle foreign interference, conducted a poll to assess exposure in this country to key Kremlin propaganda narratives.
The disinformation campaign includes the claim that weapons donated for Ukraine’s defence are “just being sold on the black market instead,” that Ukraine and NATO are responsible for starting the war with Russia; that Moscow is at war because it’s trying to “defend itself from Ukrainian Nazis”; that Russia will win eventually so sending aid to Ukraine is only delaying the inevitable and that “financial aid sent to Ukraine is being pocketed by corrupt officials within the Ukraine government.” A sixth narrative is that Ukraine should give up its eastern territory for peace “since the people living there are Russian anyway.”
The survey of more than 2,100 Canadians found that 71 per cent of respondents had encountered at least one of the narratives. On average, the poll found, respondents had heard at least two of them. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.12 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
It also found a substantial portion of Canadians who were exposed to the Kremlin-driven narratives believe them to be true, or remain unsure whether they are correct or false.
For example, the survey found, 70 per cent of respondents who had come into contact with messaging about how financial aid for Ukraine is being pocketed by corrupt officials in Ukraine either believed it or were unsure whether it was false. Forty per cent said they believed it was true and 30 per cent were unsure. Only 30 per cent said it was false. The margin of error for these smaller sub-samples is higher, ranging from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
A report based on this survey said research found people who identified as Conservative Party supporters, and had been exposed to Kremlin messaging are more influenced by these narratives than Liberals or NDP supporters. “Our survey results reveal a concerning vulnerability among certain political groups in Canada,” authors Marcus Kolga and Christopher Ross said in Canadian Vulnerability to Russian Narratives About Ukraine. “Conservative supporters, in particular, show a higher susceptibility to being unsure about or believing Russian narratives compared to their Liberal and NDP counterparts. “
Self-identified Conservative supporters were more likely to report having encountered five of the six Russian narratives tested in the polling than Liberals or New Democrats, the survey found.
The Canadian polling found 79 per cent of those who identified as Conservative supporters and who reported having encountered the messaging believed or were unsure about the narrative that “weapons we send to help Ukraine defend itself are just being sold on the black market instead.” Fifty-six per cent of Conservatives said they believed was true, compared to 26 per cent of those identifying as Liberal supporters and 29 per cent of those calling themselves New Democrat supporters.
Forty-nine per cent of Conservatives who encountered this disinformation said they believed the narrative that “Russia is going to win eventually, so sending aid to Ukraine is only delaying the inevitable.” That’s compared to 29 per cent of Liberals and 18 per cent of New Democrats who had come across these messaging.
The federal Conservative caucus drew controversy this year for voting against an updated free-trade deal with Ukraine, saying they opposed the agreement because it imposed a “carbon tax” on the European country. Both the Canadian government and Ukraine’s embassy in Canada rejected this characterization, saying the agreement’s reference to “promote carbon pricing” imposes no obligations. Ukraine also already has carbon pricing.
Asked about the new poll on Russian disinformation, Conservative foreign affairs critic Michael Chong said the party backs Ukraine and has “from the beginning.”
He noted former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper’s government negotiated the original free-trade agreement with Ukraine and it was Mr. Harper’s government who pushed for the then-Group of Eight to expel Russia, resulting in the G7 today. And it was Mr. Harper who began the Operation Unifier training program where Canadian soldiers instructed Ukrainians starting in 2015, he noted.