Jean Charest speaks to supporters on March 24, in Laval, Que.Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press
A plurality of Canadians surveyed see former Quebec premier Jean Charest as the Conservative leadership candidate best able to win the next general election, a new poll suggests.
The Nanos Research survey, which was commissioned by The Globe and Mail, found 29.5 per cent of respondents across Canada saying that Mr. Charest has the best chance to become the next Prime Minister over high-profile Ottawa MP Pierre Poilievre, chosen by 22.3 per cent of overall respondents.
The race to pick the next leader is gaining new prospects, with former Conservative deputy leader Leona Alleslev expected to soon launch her campaign, joining a field that also includes MPs Leslyn Lewis, Marc Dalton and Scott Aitchison, as well as Patrick Brown, mayor of Brampton, Ont.
Jean Charest’s balancing act will be key in the Conservative leadership vote
Mr. Charest’s support in the poll was highest in Atlantic Canada, at 34.5 per cent, and lowest in British Columbia, at 23.8 per cent. In Quebec, 28.9 per cent said he was best positioned to win the next election. In vote-rich Ontario, 32.8 per cent of respondents chose Mr. Charest as the best choice.
Mr. Poilievre’s support was highest in the Prairies, at 30.4 per cent, and lowest in Atlantic Canada (10.9 per cent). In Ontario, Mr. Poilievre garnered 22.9-per-cent support.
Almost one quarter of respondents across the country – 23.5 per cent – said they were “unsure” on the issue. And 19 per cent in the poll chose “none of them.”
Except for Mr. Charest and Mr. Poilievre, the other candidates in the race were in single digits in terms of support; Mr. Brown (3.1 per cent); Ms. Lewis (1.8 per cent); Mr. Aitchison (0.5 per cent); Mr. Baber, an independent member of the Ontario legislature, (0.3 per cent); and Saskatchewan businessman Joseph Bourgault (0.1 per cent).
Pollster Nik Nanos says the current environment for the Conservative leadership is quite uncertain.
“The polling results suggest that Canadians believe that Charest has a marginal advantage on the election-winnability front. This suggests that he is currently more appealing in the general populace than Poilievre,” Mr. Nanos said in a statement.
“That said, the first hurdle for all the candidates is to win the support of the Conservative Party rank and file. Winnability in an election should not be confused with winnability among party members.”
Mr. Nanos said the recently announced agreement between the federal Liberal government and the NDP, which calls for parliamentary co-operation and progress on key New Democratic policies through to 2025, anchors the Liberals on the progressive left.
But some Canadians may see that anchoring as an abandonment of the centre of the political spectrum, said Mr. Nanos.
“For the Conservative Party, the big decision is whether they want to veer closer to the centre to take up space vacated by the Liberals or stay on the political right.”
The survey is based on a land, cellphone and online random survey of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older, and conducted between March 18 and 20 as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Conservatives are looking for a new leader because the party caucus voted in February to oust Erin O’Toole, who was elected in 2020. Manitoba MP Candice Bergen was selected by caucus as Mr. O’Toole’s interim replacement, pending the selection of a permanent leader.
Candidates have until April. 19 to enter the race, and there’s a June 3 deadline for new members to join the party and be eligible to vote for the next leader. Ballots will be mailed out in late July or early August, and the new leader will be announced on Sept. 10.
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Ian Bailey