Gen. Jennie Carignan speaks to reporters after a change-of-command ceremony where she replaced Gen. Wayne Eyre as the Canadian Armed Forces new Chief of Defence Staff, in Ottawa on July 18.Patrick Doyle/Reuters
Canada’s new top soldier said she estimates Canada has about five years to prepare to meet new long-range threats to the continent from Russia and China.
General Jennie Carignan took over as Chief of the Defence Staff Thursday in a change-of-command ceremony in Ottawa. She was also promoted to general Wednesday, from lieutenant-general.
Gen. Carignan is the first woman to serve as chief of the defence staff in Canada.
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In a departing speech at the ceremony, her predecessor, Gen. Wayne Eyre, warned that Canadians live in a more dangerous world than most have seen in their lifetime, and rising threats from authoritarian states will mean “peak threat to the world” could arrive by the end of this decade.
Gen. Carignan, asked to comment on Gen. Eyre’s statements, said she thinks Canada and the United States have five years to prepare for new threats from adversaries such as China and Russia. Both countries are developing new hypersonic missiles that can fly five times the speed of sound and change course mid-flight. This means, unlike with ballistic missiles, a targeted country cannot quickly predict where such missiles will land. Other threats include advanced cruise missiles and advanced ballistic missiles.
Canada's Governor General, Mary Simon, right, presents the CF Ensign to Gen. Jennie Carignan at a change-of-command ceremony making Gen. Carignan the Canadian Armed Forces new Chief of Defence Staff, in Ottawa on July 18.Patrick Doyle/Reuters
“I say we have about five years to get us close enough to be ready to counter those long-range types of threats. And then we are actively working with NORAD friends and our NATO allies to get ready for that.”
Gen. Eyre, in his speech, urged Canadians to find ways to “convert funding into capabilities and readiness with alacrity.” Canada is under pressure from its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies to increase defence spending to the alliance’s target of 2 per cent of the country’s GDP. The Canadian government has said this is not projected to happen before 2032 – eight years away.
Gen. Carignan said Canadians have historically felt safe in this country, thanks to the militarily superior United States and the ice-laden Arctic that makes it hard for vessels to navigate the northern archipelago for much of the year. The Arctic, however, is melting, and threats are increasing.
“We have big oceans. We have a very deep-frozen Arctic and that has historically shielded us well from many threats,” she said. “Not so much any more. There are weapon systems that can reach the continent right now. The North is thawing,” the general said.
“We are much more open now to both conventional threats and unconventional threats all at the same time,” she said. “So I think Canadians need to understand that if we are not ready, we might not be able to react appropriately in defence of them.”
Asked to elaborate on threats, the general talked about China and Russia.
“We are assessing how our conventional opponents are getting ready and assessing their own capacity and own military forces as well. So we’re talking about China. We’re talking about Russia,” she said.
“And we are tracking how they are currently evolving their capacities to reach us in Canada and continental America. So this is kind of how we can assess in terms of timeline how much time we have to be ready to counter the threats that are coming from those conventional forces.”
A “no-limits partnership” struck between Russia and China before Moscow’s all-out assault on Ukraine began in 2022 has seen Beijing become a major enabler of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Kyiv.
Citing the increasing threats to North American aerospace Canada and the United States have set in motion plans to upgrade the NORAD’s air defences, including a new “Northern Approaches” surveillance system that will eventually replace the aging North Warning System. This will include cutting-edge technology called over-the-horizon radar, which has a far greater range of detection – as much as thousands of kilometres away.
Gen. Eyre told the change-of-command ceremony that Canada must consider this an interwar period. “The long arc of history has clearly shown that when we are not at war, we are in an interwar period, and I for one don’t see this changing,” he said.
His comments echo others in the West this year.
The United States has said repeatedly it expects China is readying itself to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.
In March, Polish President Donald Tusk said he believes Europe is in a prewar era and that nobody will feel safe if Ukraine is defeated by Russia.
Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in January the alliance should prepare for a Russian attack on a NATO country within five to eight years.
The chair of NATO’s military committee warned in January the alliance must be better prepared for war. “The tectonic plates of power are shifting,” Admiral Rob Bauer said. “And as a result: We face the most dangerous world in decades.”
He said governments and the private sector need to be prepared for a new era where you can “expect the unexpected.”
Gen. Eyre said preparing for war also means Canada and the West must not relent on support for Ukraine.
“That urgency is nowhere more necessary than our continued support for Ukraine, and strongly against vile and inhuman Russian aggression,” he said.
“The implications of the outcome of this war are momentous for our global future. Evil walks the face of the Earth, and it must be stopped.”
With a report from Reuters News Agency