Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shakes hands with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh as Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre looks on at a Tamil heritage month reception, on Jan. 30 in Ottawa.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
This week’s anticipated federal cabinet shuffle arrives at a time when all three major national party leaders need to consider their futures.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government is almost eight years in office with three elections under its belt, has the biggest decision to make. His Liberals have trailed the Conservatives in the polls ever since Pierre Poilievre became the opposition party’s leader in September, according 338Canada.com, which aggregates and analyzes polls.
And Mr. Trudeau’s government faces a difficult agenda. Canada joined its NATO allies at the recent Vilnius summit to make “an enduring commitment” to spend at least 2 per cent of GDP on defence, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meeting that commitment would increase defence spending by more than $20-billion a year – and allied nations and concerned Canadians will expect to see a strong move in that direction in next year’s budget. But the Prime Minister would rather spend money on social programs and fighting climate change.
The government is also mired in serious controversies. One involves alleged Liberal indifference to warnings the Chinese government had interfered in recent elections. That the government has still not announced a public inquiry into those allegations only encourages where-there’s-smoke-there’s-fire speculation as to why.
And the government finds itself in a huge fight with digital giants Meta and Google over the new law requiring them to pay news organizations for using their links and content. Rather than submit, both warn they will block Canadian news sources from their sites. This situation will only worsen as the end-of-year deadline for the act to come into force approaches.
Worst of all, rising interest rates caused by inflation have made everything more expensive. Houses are harder to afford and many homeowners renewing their mortgage face alarming increases in monthly payments.
This government likes to regulate and spend. Neither is much of an option here.
A cabinet shuffle won’t fix these and other problems. Proroguing Parliament and returning in the fall with a new speech from the throne might help the government reset. But a throne speech and a rejigged front bench are unlikely to convince Canadians that the Liberals have the energy and ideas needed to move Canada forward.
Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau announced his decision to resign as Liberal leader on Feb. 29, 1984, after a walk in the snow. 2024 is also a leap year.
I suspect Mr. Poilievre would rather have Mr. Trudeau stay. The core of the Conservative Leader’s message to Canadians (“everything seems broken”) is rooted in the vilification of “Justinflation” Trudeau. Were he suddenly to find himself across the aisle from a new Liberal leader – such as former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, Defence Minister Anita Anand or Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne – he might find that message harder to sell.
And Mr. Poilievre has problems of his own. He is intensely disliked by women. A recent Angus Reid poll, (online survey of 3,885 adults conducted May 30-June 3, with an equivalent margin of error plus or minus one percentage point, 19 times out of 20) has Mr. Poilievre supported by only 26 per cent of women, while 43 per cent support Mr. Trudeau. Though Mr. Trudeau is equally unpopular among men, no leader should go into an election campaign deeply disliked by women voters.
The Conservative Leader has ditched his glasses and taken to dressing more casually. A better approach would include substantive policies to convince people he would lead a sensible, competent government. His proposed “blue seal” test to expedite the licensing of foreign-trained health professionals is a good start. More, please.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains the most popular leader. His party’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals last year has led to progress on pharmacare and dental care, both of which were conditions of that pact and something for which Mr. Singh can take credit. The NDP does not appear to be suffering politically from the accord.
But the NDP’s support allows the government to continue ragging the puck on the public inquiry. Mr. Singh should tell the Liberals: Convene the inquiry now, or supply and confidence is dead.
And Mr. Singh must face his own political reality. He has fought two federal elections. His party remains mired in a distant third place. This is not progress.
All three leaders have decisions to make, though Mr. Trudeau’s is by far the toughest of all.