Antonio Cazorla-Sanchez is professor of history, Trent University; Adrian Shubert is professor of history, York University.
In Spanish political life it's called the "nuclear option." That is what Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy chose on Saturday after Catalan President Carles Puigdemont twice refused to state clearly whether or not he had declared independence on Oct. 10.
Article 155 of the Constitution of 1978, which allows the national government to take measures to "oblige a regional government to fulfill its constitutional obligations" if it fails to do so, had never before been invoked. Two of the three other major parties in the Spanish Parliament, the centrist Citizens and the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, supported the decision. Only the far left Podemos ("we can") party has opposed. However, this decision is not unprecedented in democratic countries. Tony Blair suspended Northern Ireland's autonomy four times between 2000 and 2002.
In this case, Mr. Puigdemont and all his ministers will be suspended and the entire administration, including the police and state media, will be run by people appointed by Madrid. The Catalan parliament will remain open, but its ability to legislate reduced. New elections will be held within six months.
What's happening in Catalonia? A guide to Spain's political crisis
There is plenty of room to debate how and why the situation in Catalonia has reached the point it has. And there is plenty of responsibility to be shared between Madrid and Barcelona. Certainly, Mr. Rajoy's years of ignoring the surge of Catalan separatism, only to act with the outrageous and totally unnecessary use of the police against the referendum on Oct. 1, exacerbated what already was a bad situation. One thing, however, is beyond debate: Ever since Sept. 6, when the Catalan government staged what was, in effect, a parliamentary coup d'etat, it has been acting in violation of the Spanish constitution and its own autonomy statute.
The politics of other countries can be difficult to grasp, but Canadians are well placed to understand the current Catalan crisis. Imagine that a government of Quebec defied the Clarity Act by holding a referendum on independence that it had rammed through the National Assembly after violating all of its rules and that the federal Parliament did not endorse as legitimate. And imagine that after winning the support of only 37 per cent of the population, its Premier made a unilateral declaration of independence that the National Assembly had not even endorsed. How would the federal government react? Most Canadians would expect it to do everything possible within the constitution to obstruct such illegal actions and defend national unity.
No one can predict the effects of Madrid activating article 155, but they are not likely to be good. A grievously divided Catalan society will become even more polarized. There is already a movement for Barcelona to separate from Catalonia and remain part of Spain. The entire Spanish political system, carefully constructed in the shadow of a brutal civil war and 40 years of unyielding dictatorship, will feel the effects. Separatism may be stymied in the short term, but this cannot be a lasting solution.
Even at this 11th hour, none of this has to happen. Mr. Puigdemont will be in office until the Spanish Senate authorizes 155, and until then, he is free to call elections. He has always had the power to give the people of Catalonia the "right to decide," which he and his supporters claim they so badly want. He has consistently refused to do so, holding out instead for a referendum he knows he can never have.
One has to ask why. The most obvious answer is that in an election, his party would lose significant ground to its more radical coalition partner.
In the meantime, Catalonia's economy is suffering. Tourism, one of the main sources of the region's wealth, has markedly declined. More concerning, because of the potential long-term effects, is that almost 2,000 companies have already relocated their fiscal residence elsewhere in Spain. For an economy just starting to recover from the disastrous effects of the 2008 financial crisis, a prolonging of political uncertainty will lead to more companies leaving or suspending their investments in Catalonia, and even in Spain. It took Montreal decades to recover from the economic effects of the sovereignty drive in Quebec, although the province remained part of Canada and the North American free-trade agreement.
Pressed by the Socialist party, Mr. Rajoy has spoken of reforming the Constitution in a more federal direction next year. Given his record on this matter and the centralist mentality of important sectors of his party, this commitment will need to be scrutinized. We could lament that both the national and the Catalan governments did not explore this option years ago. Instead, partisan politics, unrealistic expectations and a certain degree of fanaticism have resulted in the present, complicated situation.
Will wisdom finally prevail? Tolerant and generous, Spaniards certainly deserve that.