Based on how time is measured in politics, this summer marks the half-way point for the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau. Yes, already.
The calendar says the mid-point is technically in October, on the two-year anniversary of the government's four-year term. But the reality is that the summer adjournment of Parliament is the moment that the government will subtly switch its focus from keeping its election promises to setting the table for the next election campaign.
When Parliament resumes in the fall, the Liberal government's most urgent priority will be returning itself to power.
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So how's it looking for Mr. Trudeau and his party? More importantly, how are Canadians faring? In both cases, the answer is, all things considered, not bad.
By most measures, the country's economy is doing well – not great, but not poorly. Job growth was strong in June. The economy is growing faster than many expected in 2017, and though the pace is likely to slow next year, there are no signs of recession.
In fact, the economy has been strong enough that the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates this week, for the first time in seven years.
There is a cautious optimism in the air (the only kind of optimism cautious Canadians can muster), which is good news for a government lucky enough to be in power. This limited but real economic confidence is a gift to Mr. Trudeau.
The Liberals may even be able to deliver smaller-than-anticipated deficits, thereby undermining one of their political opponents' key lines of attack.
Also working in Mr. Trudeau's favour is the fact that the two opposition parties aren't operating at peak capacity. The NDP is in the middle of a leadership campaign; it's not clear whether it can produce a new chief who will capture the imagination of voters.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, have Andrew Scheer as their new captain. The early signs, based on things like his reaction to the settlement of Omar Khadr's lawsuit against the federal government, are that he intends to keep alive a Harper tradition of Manichean politics, but with a folksier disposition.
The policies that came from that kind of thinking – the barbaric practices hotline, trying to ban niqabs at citizenship ceremonies – didn't win the Conservatives the last election. The Tories are still figuring out whether they are cautionary tales or inspirations.
Anything can happen between now and the next general election, of course. For the opposition parties to have a chance, it's an absolute necessity. The bottom line is that uninspiring opposition leadership combined with a strong economy tend toward giving the incumbent another mandate.
Mr. Trudeau is well positioned right now, but what he and his government accomplish in the next two years will be critical to maintaining that advantage.
The biggest challenge may be the President of the United States, and the threat he poses to the Canadian economy. Donald Trump has reopened the North American free trade agreement, and he has vowed to tear it up if he doesn't get a deal more to his liking.
This is both danger and opportunity: The danger of real economic harm from Mr. Trump's actions, but also the opportunity for Mr. Trudeau to score political points with voters by being seen as the anti-Trump. He has to walk a very fine line.
So far, the Liberals have responded well. The government has sought and found allies in Congress and in the states. They are working around Mr. Trump, while also showing him just enough deference to keep him from throwing a deal-breaking tantrum.
It is still too soon to know whether this will work. If it does, Mr. Trudeau will have done Canada a favour. If it doesn't, he'll wear it.
The other great threat to the Liberal Party is… the Liberal Party. Even after the purging that came with its years in the political wilderness, and the subsequent arrival of the novice Mr. Trudeau, Canada's natural governing party still has the hubris gene firmly embedded in its DNA.
That gene has already expressed itself in many ways. Among them: Mr. Trudeau's refusal to answer questions in the House of Commons about his holiday with the Aga Khan; the government's multiple attempt to railroad through changes to how Parliament operates; burying its new infrastructure bank in an omnibus budget; promising last election to bring in electoral reform, and then breaking that promise when it realized that, as a majority government, the current system worked in its favour; its holier-than-thou positioning on progressive issues. We could go on.
It's in the Liberal Party's nature to start thinking that it is not only unbeatable, but above challenge or reproach. If Mr. Trudeau fails to keep that in check, within the government and within himself, then all bets are off for the election in 2019.