Emergency workers delivering plastic tarps after a Russian attack drone crashed in a nearby apartment building's courtyard, in Kyiv, Ukraine on Nov. 25.BRENDAN HOFFMAN/The New York Times News Service
Russian President Vladimir Putin took to a microphone in Moscow on Thursday, and gloated.
And well he might. The most powerful weapon in his arsenal – the evaporation of the West’s willingness to continue supporting Ukraine against his illegal invasion – is having the desired effect.
“They’re getting everything as freebies,” a delighted Mr. Putin said of the hundreds of billions of dollars in arms and other support the West has been sending to Kyiv. “But these freebies can run out at some point, and it looks like they’re already starting to run out.”
That remains to be seen, but the signs aren’t good.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky came away from a trip to Washington empty-handed this week, thanks to Republicans in Congress who are refusing to authorize an emergency spending bill that includes a desperately needed US$50-billion in aid for his country.
In Brussels at the European Unions’ quarterly summit this week, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban – a sycophantic ally of Russia – is doing his best to prevent the quick authorization of $73-billion in new EU aid to Ukraine that needs to begin flowing in 2024.
In Poland, truckers are continuing a month-long blockade at four of eight Ukraine border crossings that has prevented much-needed arms and equipment, including drones, from getting into the war-torn country. The truckers are angry that their Ukrainian counterparts have been temporarily exempted from the EU’s permit system so they can move goods into their country more quickly.
And meanwhile in Canada, Parliament has lately descended into petty bickering over which party is the most supportive of Ukraine – the kind of mindless domestic political grandstanding that no doubt makes Mr. Putin’s day, and fuels Mr. Zelensky’s nightmares.
For the moment, Canada’s support for Ukraine is not in question. The new U.S. and EU aid could still come through, and efforts are being made to end the truckers’ blockade.
But the West’s strong unified response in the 22 months since Russia’s invasion – a heartening flood of money and equipment that helped Ukraine win unexpected victories – is starting to show cracks.
Mr. Putin always counted on this happening. He always suspected he could outlast democratic countries in a long war, because in countries where people are allowed to debate their government’s actions without fear of imprisonment or death, voters grow weary of drawn-out conflicts and politicians inevitably put their short-term interests first.
If he is right, all he has to do is continue to hold the line in Ukraine, which his troops have successfully done this year. Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive has stalled, and a long winter of stalemate appears to await it, along with rising doubts about the West’s stomach for war.
On Thursday, Mr. Putin reiterated his insistence that peace can only he achieved on his terms, which means that Ukraine would have to give up land that its soldiers have died protecting, including the critical port city of Odesa. As well, Ukraine would have to agree to never join the EU.
That would be a disaster for Ukraine, but also for the West.
The biggest stakes in this war are not Crimea or Kherson, but the post-Second World War rules-based order that says countries can’t go about invading their neighbours on a whim.
Mr. Putin is laying siege to that ideal as much as he is laying siege to Ukraine. Any victory on his terms will demonstrate to the Russian dictator, and to others like him, that the West is feckless and will not stand up for its values when doing so becomes too costly or politically difficult in the long run.
Mr. Putin was all smug smiles on Thursday. He is in a position of strength for the moment, and he knows it.
What he should have been was ashen-faced in the knowledge that he is facing a unified alliance that has Mr. Zelensky as its flag-bearer.
In a welcome development, the EU voted on Thursday to begin negotiations to bring Ukraine into the bloc. And on Wednesday, Germany repeated a pledge to double its aid to Ukraine next year.
That’s the kind of message every Western country needs to send. Now more than ever, Ukraine’s allies need to vow that they will not concede an inch to Russia, and will not spare a single penny to get the job done.