On July 11, Canada made a public promise to its NATO allies to strengthen collective security, joining in a pledge of “an enduring commitment” to spend at least 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence.
Within weeks, though, the Liberal government was hatching plans to take a thick slice out of the Department of National Defence budget. If Ottawa were deliberately trying to destroy Canada’s credibility in the most expedient manner possible, it could scarcely have done better.
The Liberals have tried to dodge and weave, arguing that they are merely reducing future planned increases and that any budget trimming will not affect the Canadian Armed Forces directly.
All of that rhetorical fog cannot obscure the damning reality that the Liberals are reneging on the commitment to NATO, and are doing so just as Canada needs its allies’ support in the growing diplomatic crisis with India over that country’s alleged role in the murder of a Canadian citizen. And the government’s attempt at obfuscation glides over the inconvenient fact that the Liberals are shifting funds from defence spending to domestic concerns.
It would be bad enough if the Liberals were backing away from the NATO commitment as part of an effort to reduce overall spending. But that is not what the federal government is aiming to do. Instead, it is aiming to “refocus” $4.1-billion in permanent spending over the next five years, adding up to cumulative reductions of $14.1-billion. (Separately, Crown corporations are to find $450-million in permanent spending to redeploy.) Those funds are not savings; they will be spent elsewhere.
The Liberals have been exceedingly hazy on the details, but it looks as if defence spending will bear a disproportionate burden. Of that $4.1-billion in permanent spending, about one-fifth – more than $900-million – is slated to come from the Defence Department
All of this is entirely in keeping with the Liberals’ track record. There have been widely touted spending initiatives, and Canada has made some progress toward the 2-per-cent NATO goal. But as the accompanying chart shows, two factors make it clear that this government has been steadily choosing butter over bullets, and shifting the emphasis of spending to domestic concerns. The proportion of the federal budget allocated to the Defence Department has tumbled from 6.6 per cent in fiscal 2015 to an estimated 5.3 per cent in the current year.
First, in many years, actual defence expenditures end up falling well short of budgeted amounts. In fiscal 2021-22, the most recent year with complete accounting, the Defence Department had a $26.6-billion budget allocation but only spent $24.1-billion. Some of that shortfall is the result of procurement snarls – but those problems are the government’s responsibility, in power since 2015.
The other reason for the declining percentage is that the Liberals have spent heavily on domestic initiatives. Military expenditures have grown more slowly, a smaller piece of a much bigger pie.
The Liberals are headed in a wrong, and dangerous, direction. General Wayne Eyre, Chief of the Defence Staff, warned the Commons defence committee last week that the armed forces would have mere days before running out of ammunition in a full-blown conflict. Equipment and munitions sent to Ukraine need to be replaced. Recruitment gaps linger.
And strategic challenges are mounting, from Russia’s war of conquest to China’s increasing assertiveness. But the Liberals have only one battle that needs winning, in their eyes: the 2025 federal election campaign.
In July, Mr. Trudeau spoke fine words about Canada’s commitment to NATO: “As Prime Minister, there is no greater responsibility than protecting the safety and security of Canadians by coming together each year to work with NATO, which is the strongest defence alliance in history.”
The Prime Minister’s speech hit all the right notes. If only those words meant something.