The official name of Ottawa’s defence policy review is Our North, Strong and Free, but the title really should be While Canada Sleepwalks.
The government does a passable job in articulating the mounting security threats facing Canada: increasingly aggressive authoritarian regimes in Russia and China; the emergence of the Arctic as a front line due to climate change and hostile intent; and the disruptive impact of new technologies, including artificial intelligence.
And there is no lack of awareness of the need for increasing Canada’s abilities for such things as patrolling northern waters. The government says it plans on “vastly improving” Canada’s naval power at a time “when Russian submarines are probing widely across the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific Oceans and China is rapidly expanding its underwater fleet.”
So, not a moment to lose to reinforce Canada’s woefully inadequate submarine fleet, right? Not so fast – the strategic review does not commit new dollars for submarines. Instead, the Liberals will merely “explore options for renewing and expanding our submarine fleet.” There are no dollars for subs built into the framework that the government released on Monday. Ottawa has not even set a deadline for that exploration of options.
There is a similarly slow walk on recruitment: the review aims to rebuild the armed forces to their currently authorized size of 71,500 regular personnel and 30,000 primary reservists – by 2032.
It is this government’s hallmark: to come up with a plan to come up with a plan, ideally after the next federal election, slated for late 2025. Yes, there are new funds for the military, and (insufficient) progress toward meeting our spending commitments to our NATO allies. But the details of the review are less a call to action and more like a policy IOU.
Also on the options-to-be-explored list: ground-based air defences to defend Canada’s critical infrastructure; modernizing artillery; long-range air- and sea-launched missiles; surveillance, strike drones and counter-drone capabilities; new vehicles suited to winter and Arctic conditions; replacements or upgrades for tank and light armoured vehicles; and Arctic and offshore patrol vessels that can embark maritime helicopters at sea.
None of those items – many of which look a lot like dangerous strategic vulnerabilities – shows up in the new funding that the federal government rolled out Monday. In part, that’s because that funding is less impressive than the Liberals would have us believe.
According to the defence review, there is nearly $8-billion in net incremental funding over five years, starting with an extra $612-million in the current year. But those figures do not include the budget cutbacks still rolling out at the Department of Defence. In the current year, for instance, the defence budget is being reduced from earlier forecasts by $810-million, with reductions rising to $908-million annually by fiscal 2026-27.
The annual budget figures are on a cash basis, while the new spending in the review is prepared on an accrual basis. On a cash basis, the review contemplates an extra $10.7-billion over five years, but the cutbacks will reduce spending by $4.4-billion over that same period. The upshot: the amount of increased defence spending is significantly less than that being touted.
The plan tabled Monday does close some of the gap between current levels of defence spending and the minimum commitment that Canada has agreed to as a NATO member. By the end of the review period in 2029-30, Canada is aiming to spend 1.76 per cent of its gross domestic product on the military, up from 1.33 per cent last year.
That’s progress, but it still falls short of the minimum – and the Liberals still refuse to lay out a timetable for meeting the 2-per-cent commitment. Meanwhile, some of our allies are ramping up spending much more rapidly. Even if Canada were to hit its 2029-30 goal today, it would still be a laggard within NATO. Imagine the gap in a half-decade.
On Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hinted at “more to come.” Hints, plans to come up with a plan, the exploration of options: they all add up to delay, not action.
The time for sleepwalking is done. The Liberals must wake up, and close the chasm between their diagnosis of a dangerous world and their unwillingness to do what it takes to face down that danger.