B.C. Premier-elect John Horgan listens during a post-election news conference, in Vancouver on Oct. 25, 2020.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Viewed from most anywhere east of the Rocky Mountains, British Columbia is seen as the province that leans furthest to the political left. Toss in a hippie vibe, yoga and some pot-smoking, and one has a stereotype of life out west, Canada’s own Lotusland.
Some of it may even be true. In politics, however, B.C. is not a leftist paradise. Centre-right parties have been dominant in the provincial legislature. And on the federal level, the Reform Party and its conservative successors won the bulk of seats in the late 1990s and 2000s.
The political needle has moved somewhat in recent years. The centre-left is a stronger force in local Vancouver politics these days. Federally, the Liberals and NDP together won more seats than the Conservatives in the past two elections. And provincially, the NDP in 2017 squeezed into office with a minority government.
The needle drifted leftward a bit more on Saturday, when John Horgan pulled off what no other NDP premier had done before in B.C.: He got himself re-elected.
Led by Mr. Horgan’s personal popularity, the NDP had polled throughout the pandemic far ahead of their main rivals, the BC Liberals. Mr. Horgan capitalized by calling an early election, and his party scored a solid majority by winning ridings that usually go centre-right in the Vancouver suburbs and Fraser Valley.
Still, Mr. Horgan’s victory has not redefined the province’s cautious politics. There was no popular groundswell. The NDP attracted 45.1 per cent of the popular vote, up five percentage points from 2017. That’s not a radical shift. And turnout was dismal, the lowest on record at about 52 per cent, down nine percentage points from the previous election.
Mr. Horgan is well aware of the province’s political landscape. His government, in his first three years as Premier, tilted left but was rooted in a broad centre, starting with a series of balanced budgets.
On the campaign trail, he promised more of the same, building on the party’s record in office. It was actually the BC Liberals, desperate to get noticed, that made the immodest promises – scrapping the PST for a year was at the top of the list. The NDP offered steady governance, and voters gave Mr. Horgan the majority he had bet on when he called the vote.
Winning the election was the easy part.
Mr. Horgan returns to work in a far more difficult situation than in 2017. Back then, B.C. was on a roll. Now, like everywhere, the pandemic has upended everything. B.C. has so far fared better against the virus than most other provinces – a big reason for Mr. Horgan’s popularity – but over the past week infections have shot up. This may force the province to resort to restrictions imposed elsewhere, a squeeze on the economic recovery.
Another tough decision that will soon confront Mr. Horgan is the Site C hydroelectric dam, under construction in the province’s northeast. Blame can be pinned on the BC Liberals for recklessly pushing the project ahead, but Mr. Horgan’s NDP reviewed it in 2017, after $2-billion had been spent, and kept it going.
Mr. Horgan, a centrist on economic files, is averse to being pinned as anti-development, an accusation the BC Liberals had for years successfully levelled at the NDP.
But Site C is a mess. The unfinished dam faces costly geotechnical stability issues. A review of the situation lands on Mr. Horgan’s desk soon, and he will have to consider pulling the plug on a project that employs 4,645 people. It would be a massively expensive decision: As of March, $5.1-billion had been sunk into the dam.
The province’s continuing opioid crisis is a challenge, too. The NDP until recently had moved slowly on safe supply and decriminalization, two harm-reduction policies experts support. The NDP promised in its platform to do more. This includes a “made-in-B.C.” approach to decriminalization. Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry urged for decriminalization 1 1/2 years ago, and Mr. Horgan’s centrist instincts resisted. It may be time for him to deliver.
Mr. Horgan, as of November, 2021, will be B.C.'s longest-serving NDP premier. That says a lot about the party’s lacklustre history in the province. In Mr. Horgan’s first term, he avoided political potholes that undermined previous NDP governments. Voters rewarded him, but he knows his second term is going to be a lot tougher.
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