Back in March, Immigration Minister Marc Miller laid out the beginnings of a plan to control Canada’s runaway population growth.
The share of temporary residents in the population, then 6.2 per cent, would be eased to 5 per cent over three years. The group – a mix of study and work permit holders, their family members and asylum claimants – would need to drop about 20 per cent from 2.5 million, he estimated.
How’s progress so far? Nonexistent. Statistics Canada reported last week that temporary residents topped three million as of July 1, or 7.3 per cent of the total population. As the accompanying chart shows, the increase since March now implies steep reductions in the population of temporary residents will be needed.
Temporary residents are playing an outsized role in driving up the population, which grew 3.2 per cent in 2023 – the quickest pace since the late 1950s. The federal Liberals admit the country is struggling to absorb so many newcomers, particularly in the ailing housing and health care sectors.
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Because the numbers continue to rise, the Liberals’ goal is being met with justified skepticism. In July, the Bank of Canada raised its population projections for the coming years, indicating that it could take longer than planned for Ottawa to hit its 5-per-cent objective.
Mr. Miller, on the other hand, is the picture of confidence. At a recent news conference, he said his team has crunched the numbers and, shocker, they are favourable: Ottawa will hit its target on time.
To be sure, it will take time for the new policies to work. In the second quarter, the net increase in temporary residents was roughly 118,000 – huge by historical standards, but the third consecutive quarter of slowing growth. The numbers are climbing at a slower rate – but they are still climbing.
For that reason, Mr. Miller should show us his math. It’s been six months – and many policy changes – since the target was announced. Transparency is sorely needed.
The federal government is set to release its three-year plan for immigration levels by Nov. 1. That annual document outlines targets for permanent-resident admissions but, this year, it will also include targets for temporary residents.
The Liberals should provide annual goals for temporary residents, with regular updates, and they should specify how various visa programs will contribute to lowering the numbers.
To date, the government has announced a slew of measures – many now in effect – to curb the inflow of temporary residents, including caps on study permits, narrower eligibility for post-graduate work permits and tighter rules on the temporary foreign worker program. But the other side is equally important: outflows.
It’s fair to assume that most temporary residents are hoping to settle here permanently. But only so many spots are available. Ottawa is targeting permanent resident admissions of 500,000 in each of 2025 and 2026. Many will wind up disappointed.
The big question, then, is how many of the disappointed will leave? After spending tens of thousands of dollars on a third-rate education in the hopes of getting on a fast track to PR status – a story that is all too common – it’s unlikely that everyone will head to the airports when their visas expire.
The Liberals must outline a plan for ensuring people leave the country when they’re supposed to.
More broadly, they need to communicate their economic and humanitarian goals, and how the immigration numbers will help achieve them. The permanent resident target for the next two years – 500,000 – is a nice round figure made for feel-good political marketing, but it needs to be justified.
Canada should pursue robust immigration that balances the country’s long-term needs with its short-term constraints. But Canadians need a plan, not another slogan.