BC United Leader Kevin Falcon, right, listens as BC Conservative Leader John Rustad speaks during a news conference, in Vancouver, on Aug. 28.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
With the collapse this week of the BC United party, the choice for voters in British Columbia in the fall provincial election is now clear: the long-governing NDP against the upstart BC Conservatives.
BC United, the current Official Opposition, suffered a self-inflicted tailspin after it abandoned the centre-right BC Liberals brand it had governed under from 2001 into 2017. Meanwhile, the BC Conservative party, which garnered 1.9 per cent of votes in the 2020 election, surged ahead, riding public support generated by the success of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Before BC United dropped out on Wednesday, as the party ran out of money and candidates defected to the Conservatives, it was far behind. A poll two weeks ago showed the NDP ahead at 42 per cent, Conservatives at 37 and United tied with the Greens at 10. Another survey this month had the Conservatives at 36 per cent, the NDP at 33 and United and the Greens at 10 each. BC United’s vanishing act makes official what was already the polling reality: a two-party race ahead of the Oct. 19 election. It pits NDP Premier David Eby against John Rustad, the BC Conservative Leader and, until two years ago, a long-time BC Liberal MLA.
While Mr. Rustad served in cabinet in a mainstream party from 2013 through 2017, his recent history has moved him toward the fringes of Canadian politics, starting with his forthright rejection of climate science. He was tossed from the BC Liberal caucus in 2022 over the issue.
Kevin Falcon, BC United Leader, last fall said: “I don’t think there’s any scenario in which John Rustad would be remotely ready to step into the position of premier.” On Tuesday, a day before endorsing Mr. Rustad, Mr. Falcon said the Conservatives were “at risk of becoming a conspiracy party.”
The Conservatives concede climate change is real but say people burning fossil fuels is “one of hundreds of potential factors.” In 2021, the scientific consensus declared human influence the “unequivocal” factor. Mr. Rustad, however, is undeterred. In May, in a Globe editorial board interview, he claimed that conclusion was “false” and that reducing carbon dioxide emissions “is not going to change the weather.”
On other issues, Mr. Rustad has offered muddled positions. He supports more housing and greater density in cities but suggests he wants to scrap the NDP’s country-leading legislation that forces cities to permit more density. Mr. Rustad called the policies “authoritarian.”
He also proposed, not without some irony, a Conservative government vetting of books in school classrooms and libraries to ensure they are “neutral” on matters such as the environment and sexuality.
But while Mr. Rustad has a mixed track record, Mr. Eby has a challenging election campaign ahead.
Issues such as drugs and crime will be among those at the fore. Mr. Eby will have to defend the NDP’s policy experiments – from the decriminalization of small amounts of drugs to prescribed opioids for drug-use disorders – that aim to alleviate the health crisis of overdose deaths.
The carbon tax will be another test, after an economywide surge in prices because of high inflation in 2022 and 2023. Mr. Rustad embraces Mr. Poilievre’s “axe the tax” ethos. The NDP government has been at the fore of climate policy and levies a provincial version of the federal Liberals’ carbon price, currently 17.6 cents a litre on gasoline.
Housing policy should be a strength for the NDP. Mr. Eby over the past year has made B.C. the policy leader in Canada on addressing the housing shortage, with a focus on density. This space strongly supports the NDP’s actions.
But fiscal policy will merit a vigorous debate. Mr. Rustad promises to eventually balance the provincial budget. Mr. Eby has been on a spending spree, investing in health care, education and infrastructure as he leverages B.C.’s solid fiscal position with larger deficits and a growing debt. The province’s debt-to-GDP ratio was 17.6 per cent in March and is forecast to reach 27.5 per cent in three years. That figure is still well below the roughly 40-per-cent level in Ontario, Quebec and federally, but the trend in B.C. cannot continue forever.
The choice in the fall will be stark: an incumbent NDP government with a proven track record but an array of challenges to address, or an upstart right-wing party led by a political veteran who is eager, in some cases, to embrace discredited positions. There are few shades of grey in the choice for British Columbians.