Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rises during Question Period, in Ottawa, on June 19.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Canada has about a half-decade to rebuild its military to face emerging challenges from Russia and China, including advanced intercontinental missiles, the country’s top soldier told reporters last week.
“I say we have about five years to get us close enough to be ready to counter those long-range type of threats,” General Jennie Carignan said as she formally assumed the role of Chief of the Defence Staff.
Her predecessor, Gen. Wayne Eyre, had a similar analysis, warning that the “peak threat to the world” is likely to emerge by the end of this decade.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said the Liberals would boost Canada’s spending on defence to 2 per cent of gross domestic product by 2032, with details to come in 2028, to meet the current minimum agreed upon by members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (Pressure from the United States on NATO allies to spend more is growing, and will grow even more intense if Donald Trump retakes the White House.)
As this space has previously argued, the Liberals’ strategy is mostly vapourware. But filling the defence gap may not be up to the Liberals. If current polling trends hold, the Conservatives will be in office during those critical five years. So what are the Conservatives proposing?
For the moment, the Tories are heavy on a critique of the failures of the Trudeau Liberals but light on details of what they might do differently. And, for the moment, that’s fair – after all, the job of the Official Opposition is to oppose.
But as next year’s election draws closer, the party will need to spell out its defence policy. It’s clear what that policy should be: a concrete commitment to hit the 2-per-cent mark by the end of its scheduled term in office in 2029. Such a plan would need to come with a strategy both on how to spend additional billions of dollars, and how those expenditures would be funded.
In that context, there are mildly – but only mildly – encouraging signs from the opposition benches.
The Conservatives said earlier this month that they would “make real and credible efforts to work towards meeting our NATO spending commitments” after Mr. Trudeau’s announcement of the 2032 goal.
If that statement was meant to be a contrast to the Liberals’ detail-light promise, it failed. Instead, the Conservatives indulged in the same non-committal word salad as their opponents. (Supporters of the Liberals might like to think that Mr. Trudeau’s 2032 pledge is more substantial. It is not.)
A day later, however, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was more substantive when pressed by reporters on his plan for NATO.
First, Mr. Poilievre said he does not want to make a promise that he cannot keep. It is both a simple yet sadly necessary statement, given Mr. Trudeau’s propensity for ethereal plans. Federal finances are “a dumpster fire,” he said, adding that he wants to ensure he has “done all the math” before committing to a plan. The math will be complicated by Mr. Poilievre’s pledge to eliminate the federal budget deficit.
Underneath the obvious rhetoric, there is a worthwhile point: a future government needs to ensure it has the fiscal capacity to fund the considerable expense of rebuilding Canada’s military. Mr. Poilievre offered up a limited menu of possibilities: cuts to foreign aid, a crackdown on unspecified “corruption,” reducing “backroom bureaucracy” and dealing with procurement issues.
All of that will come nowhere near to funding the $20-billion (and rising) in additional annual defence spending required. There are, however, possibilities that would be in keeping with Conservative priorities: Reducing the swollen civil service could save billions of dollars a year; and eliminating inefficient subsidies to business could save tens of billions of dollars, as this space has previously said.
Mr. Poilievre, however, has flagged that he will act to speed up procurement, by emphasizing speed of acquisition and value for money over domestic sourcing. Too often, the emphasis on domestic suppliers has devolved into little more than regional pork-barrelling.
The Conservatives have an opportunity to outflank the Liberals on defence, and to demonstrate that they take security concerns more seriously than their rivals. But criticism is not enough. To fully exploit that opportunity, Mr. Poilievre will need to spell out his battle plan to Canadians.