Much of the legacy of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is at risk, for the simple reason that the Prime Minister made the mistake of assuming the federal government was superior to the governments of the provinces. It isn’t and they aren’t.
As a result, court rulings have pared back parts of the Liberal agenda, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is committed to repealing much of the rest, cheered on by rebellious premiers.
That agenda has not lacked ambition. The Liberals have, for example, negotiated several rounds of increased health funding with provincial governments. But that funding has been contingent on the provinces bolstering particular services, such as mental health and home care. These are important priorities. But so is primary care. And orthopedic care. Each province knows where the need is greatest in health care. The role of the federal government is to provide the necessary funding and let the provinces get on with the job.
In child care, the Liberals were initially content to build on a program of direct payments to parents created by the previous Conservative government. But then came the new national program of subsidies for child-care spaces, which Ottawa negotiated with the provinces. Each province knows where the need is greatest in child care. The role of the federal government is to provide the necessary funding and let the provinces get on with the job.
The government has been particularly aggressive on the environmental front, enacting new legislation, offering direct grants, and imposing a carbon tax on provinces whose emissions-reduction schemes were deemed insufficient. But last fall courts twice ruled Ottawa had intruded into areas of provincial jurisdiction, led by the Supreme Court declaring part of the Impact Assessment Act unconstitutional. And Mr. Trudeau himself undermined the carbon tax last year when he exempted home heating oil, heavily used in Atlantic Canada, where many Liberal seats are at risk.
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Seven premiers, including the Liberal government in Newfoundland and Labrador, have asked Ottawa to defer the increase slated for April 1. The Saskatchewan government, irresponsibly, is refusing to collect or remit the tax. Both Saskatchewan and Alberta have enacted so-called sovereignty acts to protect against federal interference.
Mr. Poilievre has vowed to abolish the carbon tax if he becomes prime minister. Polls suggest that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would win a substantial majority government.
But the Conservative Leader is at risk of committing the same mistake Mr. Trudeau made. The Trudeau government is negotiating funding deals (almost four dozen and counting) with municipalities to increase housing starts. Mr. Poilievre says a Conservative government would punish municipalities that don’t build enough homes by withholding grants (while rewarding those who exceeded targets). But municipalities are, as the saying goes, creatures of the provinces. The Liberals have irritated provinces by dealing directly with cities. Presumably, the Conservatives’ more punitive approach would be even more irksome.
Canada does best when governments of differing political stripes build on the achievements of their predecessor, such as when Stephen Harper’s Conservatives maintained Liberal Jean Chrétien’s commitment to keeping the budget balanced while encouraging high levels of immigration, or when Mr. Trudeau’s government completed trade agreements launched by Mr. Harper’s.
Canada does poorly when each new government reverses the policies of its predecessor. In this case, Mr. Poilievre, if elected, will spend much of his new government’s energy dismantling parts of Mr. Trudeau’s agenda.
The Canadian federation is a strange beast. Ottawa accrues more tax revenue than the provinces, but the provinces are responsible for big-spending programs such as health care and education. Some provinces are wealthier than others. Quebec rightly and jealously protects its language and unique culture. Western provinces demand that Central Canadians respect their autonomy.
All of these often-conflicting interests can be reconciled, provided the prime minister and premiers of the day work together co-operatively and respectfully. Mr. Trudeau ignored that truth, and is likely to pay a political price. Mr. Poilievre should watch and learn.