Manitoba’s new Premier has suspended the province’s fuel tax, questions the wisdom of the federal fuel charge, is aiming for a budget surplus before the next election and is fretting about how to close the prosperity gap with other provinces.
For those outside of Manitoba, that agenda might look like an awkward fit for an NDP government. But the vision that Premier Wab Kinew laid out for his first term in a discussion with The Globe and Mail editorial board is a tacking back to Manitoba’s centrist history and traditions. (Q: Why did the Manitoban cross the road? A: To get to the middle.)
The Progressive Conservatives, to their eventual electoral sorrow, veered away from that moderate sensibility, most notably during last fall’s campaign in which Mr. Kinew’s NDP won Winnipeg’s suburbs, and a solid majority of seats. His PC rivals hoped to blunt NDP momentum with billboard campaigns that bragged about the decision not to search a Winnipeg landfill for the bodies of two missing Indigenous women. That move backfired badly, in part because of the contrast with Mr. Kinew’s centre-hugging optimism.
The Prairies version of progressive politics – including the ambition to win elections and to govern – is also a factor in the tenor of the early months of the Kinew government (and a contrast to the federal NDP).
Party icon Tommy Douglas was famously opposed to deficits during his lengthy tenure as Saskatchewan premier. That same streak of prudence can be seen in the budget tabled earlier this month by the Manitoba government. There is red ink, to be sure. Deficits are higher than those forecast by the previous PC government, and the ratio of debt to the province’s gross domestic product edges up.
But those deficits steadily shrink, until inching into surplus in fiscal 2027-28, according to the budget.
The NDP is increasing spending – but 85 cents of each dollar for increased program expenditures in the current fiscal year are devoted to health care. That is distinct from the scattershot approach to spending by, for one example, the federal Liberals.
Circumstances are undoubtedly part of Mr. Kinew’s moderate and modest fiscal plans. He came to office last October, just as cost-of-living concerns were coming to a head. Mr. Kinew proposed to cut fuel taxes in response.
In other provinces, similar moves have been positioned as an act of opposition to the federal Liberals and a counterpunch to the carbon tax.
Mr. Kinew’s description of his decision is instead rooted in a pragmatic view of progressive politics. “My understanding of what the NDP is supposed to be is the party that helps the average person,” he says.
And there is the Premier’s personal inclination as a bridge builder, including between the often separate realities of Indigenous people in Manitoba and the rest of the province. It’s a theme that Mr. Kinew, the first First Nations provincial premier, spoke to consistently during the fall campaign.
But the Manitoba NDP is not a right-leaning party in disguise. Increases in spending on social housing, and a push to grapple with the homelessness problem in Winnipeg and other Manitoba urban centres are definitely on-brand. So too were changes to property-tax credits, which saw bills rise for higher-valued homes.
Less positively, the Kinew government’s lack of enthusiasm for allowing the private sector to collaborate with Manitoba Hydro in building up the province’s renewable-energy capacity is a relatively rare example of orthodoxy.
The NDP would do well to reconsider, and instead take a note from its own policies for addressing the housing crisis (particularly given Manitoba Hydro’s daunting debt levels). On housing, the government is willing to be flexible and innovative in harnessing the power of private capital.
A key test for the government will be sticking with its broad fiscal plan, even as disruptive events inevitably arise. Too many governments across Canada, ranging from the federal Liberals to Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives, project balanced budgets a few years down the line, but never manage to arrive at that destination. Manitoba, already debt-burdened, should not join that roster.
A measured rise in health spending coupled with the discipline to return to balance will be proof that the NDP has steered Manitoba politics back to the centre of the road – and would make a compelling pitch for re-election.