Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was waiting to hear from Chinese President Xi Jinping, following the latter’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. As of this writing, the call hasn’t been reported to have taken place, but here in Ukraine, hopes are waning that Beijing will use its growing influence over Moscow to urge it to lay down arms. “I gave a direct signal through diplomatic channels that I want to talk to the Chinese leader,” Mr. Zelensky said.
Ukraine has made it clear that it will agree to a peace deal that starts and ends with the complete removal of Russian troops from its territory – a point conspicuously absent from China’s so-called 12-point peace plan that was discussed with Mr. Putin.
However, as the war grinds on to the 400-day mark, there are rumblings in Kyiv that a planned spring counteroffensive may need to be delayed because of shortages of tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers. That could partially explain Mr. Zelensky’s public comments about the need to get Mr. Xi on the telephone.
During and after the Sino-Russian summit, Ukrainian officials remained uncharacteristically tight-lipped about the meeting, suggesting they did not wish to offend the Chinese side ahead of a call. Regardless of whether it takes place or not, given China’s increasing coziness with Moscow, Mr. Zelensky shouldn’t be looking to China as a partner for peace.
Beijing has long since tried to curry favour with Kyiv and there is good reason why: Ukraine is a rich source of agricultural products, a promising consumer market, as well as a source for sensitive technology. In 2019, Beijing even sent its then-unofficial ambassador, tech magnate Jack Ma, to Kyiv to heap praise on the Zelensky government and his “intelligent” citizens.
In the run-up to Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials pitched their country as a potential “bridge to Europe” for Chinese business, leading to an infrastructure-construction co-operation agreement in 2021. “China is Ukraine’s number one trade and economic partner in the world,” Mr. Zelensky said in July, 2021, immediately after his first phone call with Mr. Xi.
But Beijing has shown itself to be anything but a trustworthy friend. In June, 2021, when Ukraine was desperate for COVID-19 vaccines, China blackmailed Ukraine by threatening to withhold a shipment of at least 500,000 doses when it became known that Kyiv signed a Canadian-led statement critical of China’s human rights record in Xinjiang. That alone demonstrated that China is prepared to sacrifice Ukrainian lives to the jaws of its wolf-warrior diplomacy.
In an evolving bromance designed to cement their respective legacies, it is becoming increasingly obvious that Mr. Xi has little desire to restrain Mr. Putin. Last Tuesday, just as the two autocrats sat down at a state dinner in Moscow where they called for an end to actions that “increase tensions” and prolong the war in Ukraine, Russian missiles started raining down on Odesa, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. It has also emerged that a Chinese manufacturer plans to sell killer drones capable of carrying 35-kg to 50-kg warheads to Moscow.
The time has come for Kyiv to stand up to the autocrat in Beijing – and it wouldn’t be the first country in the region to do so. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia followed an earlier move by Lithuania to quit the so-called 16+1 economic forum established by Beijing with central and Eastern European countries. Lithuania went even further and established an economic and trade office in Taipei.
Ukraine has much to gain from an enhanced relationship with Taiwan: the possibility of reciprocal academic programs, access to Taiwan’s coveted technology (including semiconductor chips and digital infrastructure for areas such as remote learning), and the satisfaction of putting into practice its ”Be brave like Ukraine” branding by standing up to a bully, in the form of China.
Taiwan has already shown its support of Ukraine by providing powerful generators to counter the infrastructure damage wrought by waves of Russian attacks. In addition, Taiwan has implemented strict sanctions on Russia and given Ukraine hundreds of tons of humanitarian aid, direct financing to Ukrainian municipalities, and money for training programs and rebuilding efforts.
Mr. Zelensky should take the call from Mr. Xi but ask him some tough questions. At the same time, he should direct his foreign minister to explore a more robust relationship with Taiwan. After all, the two already have a solid basis to pursue closer ties – not least of which is waking up everyday to existential threats from a belligerent neighbour.