Young voters are not moving right. Conservative parties are moving toward them

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There is hope for all of us grappling with the cruel effects of time to see that many young adults in America are backing a septuagenarian – one with a bad spray tan and a body that could, conceivably, be 75-per-cent Diet Coke – as their leader. Maybe “hope” is the wrong word; indeed, there are other descriptors that more appropriately reflect the feeling that many Americans have looking ahead to the next four years. But it’s noteworthy nevertheless that instead of fading into irrelevance, as many of us fear happens with age, one particular senior has managed to speak the language of his country’s youth.

Young people, especially young men, turned out for U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. While Vice-President Kamala Harris won more of the youth vote overall, Mr. Trump shrunk the gap significantly compared to the 2020 election against President Joe Biden (young voters favoured Ms. Harris by 4 percentage points, compared to +25 for Mr. Biden). According to analysis of Associated Press exit data, men aged 18 to 29 swung 15 percentage points to the right this election, while women aged 18 to 29 swung eight percentage points. Together, they seem to suggest a significant ideological shift in a short period of time.

But perhaps the hypothesis that the youth themselves have changed doesn’t really reflect what’s going on. Indeed, what happened in the U.S. during the recent election isn’t an American-specific phenomenon; we’re seeing young voters gravitate toward conservative – and in some cases, far-right – political parties in a handful of other Western countries, including Canada. A Leger poll conducted in November, for example, found that 39 per cent of respondents under the age of 35 planned to vote for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in the next election. There’s been a notable shift rightward among youth in France, Italy, Portugal, Germany and elsewhere, as well.

So what’s happening? Is there something in the water (or on social media, or in schools) that’s compelling a proportion of those who historically supported left-wing parties to suddenly veer to the right? Or are young people, by and large, consistent in their values and priorities, and it’s the parties of the right that themselves are changing?

Surveys from Canada, the U.S. and other Western countries show that young voters list economic concerns – the cost of living, low wages and high housing costs – among their top voting priorities, issues that have become more pressing amid inflationary pressures over the last couple of years. These are issues Mr. Trump talked about endlessly during the election, while Ms. Harris’s campaign focused on abortion and the threat Mr. Trump posed to America. They’re what Mr. Poilievre harps on about at every opportunity, pledging to “Axe the Tax,” and make everyday items such as groceries more affordable. As little as a decade ago, these very granular concerns were the domain of the left, but they’ve been largely overshadowed by left-wing ideological battles (helped, of course, by conservative caricatures of the culture wars).

So right-wing parties have moved in, and strategically, it makes sense. When young people are struggling to pay for housing or groceries, big-picture issues such as democratic norms – or even climate change – become less salient. An Abacus poll from 2023 demonstrated as much; it indicated that Boomers are seven points more likely to list climate change among their top three important issues facing Canada than Gen Z. In Canada’s case, the Conservatives have annexed the NDP’s real estate on issues such as good wages and affordable homes.

But it’s not the focus on these issues alone. Right-wing parties in recent years have adopted the language and aura of outsiders, in contrast to their stuffy establishment counterparts. It doesn’t matter that born-into-wealth New York real estate mogul Donald Trump or lifelong politician Pierre Poilievre could be considered the epitome of establishment; they talk and act like outsiders. And young people, who are decades away from making partner or paying off a mortgage (if they can even get one) are outsiders by definition. In Portugal, the right-wing Chega party (“Enough,” in Portuguese) tapped into those outsider frustrations, led by former sports commentator André Ventura. The party managed to win 18 per cent of the vote in this year’s election, despite being less than five years old.

Chega leaned considerably on social media such as TikTok to get out its message, opting to meet young people where they are instead of hoping they’ll hear them on traditional mediums. That is something the Trump campaign team did exceptionally well also (particularly after hiring 22-year-old social-media manager Jack Advent in the spring), sending their candidate to speak on Logan Paul’s and Joe Rogan’s podcasts, among others, and turning his dance moves into a viral meme. Mr. Poilievre has long excelled at turning his Question Period quips into viral videos, and creating easy-to-digest YouTube videos on complex issues.

So maybe it isn’t the youth changing, so much as it is the parties themselves. As it turns out, talking about the issues that are most important to young people, looking and sounding like the anti-establishment option and meeting young people where they are already are key to winning some of their support.