Trump’s first term was a warning for Canada. We didn’t heed it

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The U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden last month was a genuinely frightening spectacle. At one lectern was a known lunatic: a guy who trades in conspiracies and lies, whose prospective second term promises to be even more volatile than the first. At the other lectern was an unknown figure: Joe Biden in body, but someone else in mind. This was an old man unlike the one who ran for president in 2020; he was pale, confused and adrift. With his mouth frequently agape, Mr. Biden could barely put together a coherent thought. That guy was someone you wouldn’t trust with your car keys, never mind the nuclear codes.

No doubt sensible Americans were horrified to see that their choice for the next president had come to this. But it was a different type of alarm watching from up here in Canada; almost like a kid watching his incapacitated parents brawling over who ate the last piece of pizza. Here we are, peering down from the second floor, where we can see that Dad is drunk, Mom is depressed and hallucinating, and the landlord’s coming around soon to collect the rent. Who’s going to take care of us?

The answer is that a 157-year-old shouldn’t be relying on Mom and Dad to make sure our bills are paid, or to protect us if someone breaks into our home. Mr. Trump reminded Canada of that when he became president in 2017 and brought with him an outright adversarial attitude toward even the closest U.S. allies. His administration ripped up the North American free-trade agreement, and over the course of negotiations for a new deal he accused Canada (and Mexico) of being “very difficult” and “spoiled,” and went so far as to threaten to kick Canada out of a new agreement. He slapped 25-per-cent and 10-per-cent tariffs on imports of Canadian steel and aluminum, respectively, which his administration dubiously labelled a national security threat. He repeatedly warned Canada, and others, to up their national-defence spending, signalling that he would reduce the presence of American troops around the world if allies didn’t meet NATO’s baseline spending of 2 per cent of GDP.

Mr. Trump is not just signalling any more; he has now outright said that he wouldn’t defend “delinquent” NATO allies that do not adequately spend on their own defence. People close to Mr. Trump have also described how his second term would try to fundamentally shift America’s role away from being an international security steward, foisting responsibility for logistics, artillery, military deployment and so on onto European nations. A second-term Mr. Trump, who would be vindicated by the electorate, surrounded by sycophants and emboldened by a stacked Supreme Court, would surely make the guy from 2017 seem like a tepid field mouse.

A second Biden term, which is less likely according to polling after Mr. Biden’s disastrous debate performance and continuing calls for a new candidate, would at least deliver an administration that adheres to conventions of international diplomacy. But Canadians can now see it also comes with serious risks. Mr. Biden is clearly experiencing cognitive decline, despite the denials from Democrats who are publicly imploring people not to believe what they see. The President’s subsequent attempts at damage control have only confirmed that he is not the man he used to be; he’s now bragging about crowd sizes, attacking elites and the media, and he has struggled to clearly communicate ideas even in friendly interviews. Even if he somehow manages to win re-election, Americans – and Canadians – cannot trust that he will be the person making key decisions from the Oval Office. After seeing the way he struggles to marry the end of a sentence to its beginning, we cannot trust he is the person making those decisions now.

The first Trump term should have been a wake-up call for Canada. We cannot lean on our geography and friendship with the U.S. to protect us from hostile powers. Indeed, our three ocean borders can’t shield us from foreign meddling, and our military can’t perform its duties with aging equipment and severe personnel shortages. We cannot take for granted that the next occupant of the Oval Office will respect the reciprocal economic relationship Canada and the U.S. have long enjoyed. We need to shore up our own economic strength: attract more highly skilled workers, retain top talent, increase productivity, create conditions for more competition and so on. Canada has done none of these things.

That’s why we’re left as a 157-year-old child, looking on helplessly as those on whom we rely argue about their golf game. Canada needs America’s trade, intelligence, military support and border reinforcements; we’ve even come to rely on the U.S. to treat some of our cancer patients. Yet one prospective leader might threaten to tear it all up, while the other could get lost finding his way back from the bathroom. It’s an abysmal choice for Americans, and pretty scary for us in Canada, too.