Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel addresses the United Nations General Assembly in New York, on Sept. 27.DAVE SANDERS/The New York Times News Service
Jon Allen is a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and a former Canadian ambassador to Israel and Spain.
The past couple of weeks have brought a significant shake-up in the Middle East. After almost a year of fighting in Gaza and at its northern border with Lebanon, Israel has scored some sophisticated tactical victories. Israel has done significant damage to Hezbollah, its enemy in Lebanon, and its Iron Dome defence system, with help from its allies and neighbours, intercepted most of Tuesday’s missiles sent by Iran. However, for Israelis and Palestinians to ultimately be able to live in peace, they will have to find a way to share the land they inhabit.
Three weeks ago, the war in Gaza appeared to be winding down, although Palestinians there were still suffering daily bombings and the humanitarian situation continued to be dire. Hezbollah was firing rockets into northern Israel daily, and around 60,000 Israelis were unable to return to their homes. The Houthis were aiming rockets at Israel and causing continuing disruptions to shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was being challenged by the families of hostages and others demanding he take responsibility for Oct. 7 and resign. At the same time, his radical right-wing coalition partners were prioritizing war and settlement expansion over peace deals and a hostage release. Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition majority was slim and there was some hope that enough reasonable members of the Knesset might bolt and force an election.
Then, the world turned. Israel pulled off a major intelligence and military coup by replacing the cell phones of senior Hezbollah leaders and the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. Shortly after, while Mr. Netanyahu was delivering a blistering speech at the UN General Assembly aimed equally at the organization and at Iran and its other proxies, the IDF was completing plans to eliminate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, many of his military and political lieutenants and various Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps members. Iran’s main proxy and deterrent against an Israeli attack was effectively decimated and it will take years to rebuild that capacity. On the Gaza front, Hamas’s leader Yahya Sinwar has not been seen or heard from for weeks. It is unclear whether he’s alive, wounded or just staying deep inside one of Hamas’ myriad tunnels.
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For many Israelis, these victories brought relief and a renewed sense that the IDF was back in the business of protecting them. Oct. 7 would never be forgotten but hope was possible. The victories also boosted Mr. Netanyahu’s poll numbers. Then, a former sworn enemy of his, Gideon Saar, and three others joined Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition, thereby solidifying his premiership and snuffing out the hopes of the hostage families and those demanding early elections.
Will Iran’s recent ballistic missile attack lead to a wider regional conflict? I think not. Iran has always been prepared to sit on the sidelines while its Arab proxies died to protect it. I doubt whether it wants to engage in a full-scale war with Israel and, inevitably, the U.S.
While these events have indeed changed the current dynamics of the region and have given Israel a short-term morale boost, any hope for longer-term peace and real stability in the region will require more than tactical military victories, no matter how sophisticated they are. As former Israeli prime ministers Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert, and numerous former heads of Mossad, the IDF and Israel’s security service, the Shin Bet, have made clear, while attacks on Israel from the outside are real and dangerous, the most serious threat to Israel’s future viability is the threat from within.
Currently, there are 7.5 million Jews and 7.5 million Palestinian Arabs living in the land between “the river and the sea.” Despite the wishes of Israel’s radical right-wing ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, on the one hand, and Yahya Sinwar and his followers on the other, neither population is going anywhere. Israelis and Palestinians are in no mood to talk peace now and the idea of two states is not on their radar. But recall that the president of Egypt, Anwar Sadat, spoke in the Knesset only four years after his country fought Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Two years later, Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty.
Only an agreement between Israel and the Palestinian people can end the occupation. Only then will Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies agree to Israel’s full integration in the region. Only then will the threats of more Oct. 7ths and more deaths of innocents on both sides be over. And only then will both Israelis and Palestinians be able to exercise their full rights to self-determination.