Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads into a meeting of the Liberal caucus after speaking to reporters on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 8.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
Justin Trudeau’s standing may take a bit of a beating in coming opinion polls on account of the Chinese meddling controversy.
And why not? After his slithering and dithering in response to all the demands to call a public inquiry, the Prime Minister staged a humbling climbdown, finally admitting how serious the matter was and gravely announcing probes to deal with it.
It will be more serious and incriminating if it is shown that Mr. Trudeau knew the Chinese were secretly funnelling campaign contributions to Liberal candidates and did nothing about it. But it’s doubtful the issue, as some are suggesting, is momentous enough to implode the Liberal Party or force Mr. Trudeau’s departure.
As with so many political controversies, scandals and scandalettes that I’ve been covering since the 1970s, it’s best to step away from the heat of the day and consider what the matter will look like months down the road.
At that point chances are this one – though it will last longer than the Chinese spy balloon fracas that was forgotten in a week – will be on the inside pages. Other uproars will have taken over.
But where this story has lasting great importance is in the damage it has brought to the Canada-China relationship. Relations had soured with the economic giant, our second-largest single-country trading partner. They were at a tipping point. The meddling revelations have taken them over the edge and the economic ramifications down the line could be dire.
As for the impact on Mr. Trudeau’s political fortunes, what could be devastating for the Liberals would be if it was found that they actually collaborated with Chinese operatives in their efforts to help Liberals win certain ridings. That would constitute a full-blown scandal.
But the timeline of events makes something like this highly improbable. Recall that in December, 2018, China locked up Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig in response to Ottawa’s apprehending Huawei business executive Meng Wanzhou at the behest of Washington. It sparked outrage. Relations with China went into a deep freeze. They remained that way through the elections of 2019 and 2021, when it is alleged the Chinese interference occurred.
That Team Trudeau would be condemning Beijing here and in capitals around the world while at the same time giving the green light to Chinese operatives to help them in elections seems rather far-fetched.
But who knows. There are countless unanswered questions. We don’t know which end is up. We don’t know if what the CSIS whistleblowers are leaking is true or not true. The track record of spooks – CSIS on Maher Arar, the CIA on weapons of mass destruction – is not reassuring.
What we do know is that our relations with China, this following about six decades of our governments trying to find accommodation with the Middle Kingdom, are shattered. Following the release of the two Michaels in 2021, there was hope relations could be set back on track. Not now.
It was primarily the Liberals and primarily the Trudeaus who maintained faith that the one-party dictatorship could become a reliable partner. Under Pierre Trudeau, Canada was one of the first countries to diplomatically recognize China, doing so ahead of Richard Nixon. Trudeau the father schooled the son. On his visit to China in 2016, Justin Trudeau said that “The friendship and the openness towards China that my father taught me, I’m certainly hoping to pass on not only to my children but to generations of Canadians in the future.”
What a rude awakening he has had. Others too. Jean Chrétien, a big China booster who led trade missions there, had what he called “a special relationship.” On the Conservative side, Brian Mulroney forged good relations and Stephen Harper, later in his stewardship, reached out as well.
It was a bad twist of fate that put the Trudeau government, via its co-operating with Washington on Ms. Meng, on the outs with the Xi regime. Now there’s this incredible irony that sees the government accused at the same time of enabling their political operatives to work on their behalf.
Blame will be tossed around. Parallel inquiries will likely drag on and Mr. Trudeau will move on. A former CSIS employee told me that he has zero confidence that the inquiries, given all the roadblocks that the spy organization can put up, will clarify what happened.
The probes, however, will infuriate China all the more, make relations even worse, and endanger access to the mammoth Asian market we worked so long to win.