Stephen Maher is a political journalist and the author of several books, including The Prince: The Turbulent Reign of Justin Trudeau.
In October of 2022, when I started working on my book about Justin Trudeau’s government, I told my interview subjects that I thought history would judge him favourably.
It seemed to me then that Mr. Trudeau had changed the country more than Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin or Stephen Harper, and that his record could be measured against Brian Mulroney’s. Justin’s father, Pierre – who gave the country the Charter of Rights and Freedoms – is more significant, but I thought history might put Justin ahead of other recent prime ministers.
Mr. Trudeau lifted many children out of poverty, legalized marijuana, reformed the Senate (sort of), steered the country through the pandemic and managed to save the North American free-trade agreement from Donald Trump. He made progress on Indigenous reconciliation, checked rising inequality and acted to bring down emissions with a carefully designed carbon tax, which he backed resolutely through tedious legal and political battles.
Of course, he also made many mistakes, burning political capital on nonsense. The first was his trip to the Aga Khan’s island, an ethical minefield he choppered into after rejecting the advice of senior staff. There was a disastrous trip to India, with too many costume changes, a guest appearance by a Khalistani terrorist and no subsequent increase in chickpea exports.
Worst was the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which his office put inappropriate pressure on the attorney-general at the time, Jody Wilson-Raybould, who did not want to give a get-out-of-jail-free card to a troubled company with deep connections to the people who run the country. It brought his government to the brink of collapse, but he got past it, and all his recent predecessors had presided over scandals that were at least as bad.
That was how I saw Mr. Trudeau when I started researching the book – generally successful, in spite of many mistakes. Eighteen months later, as the book is being published, Mr. Trudeau looks worse, and the trend line ought to give him pause.
His mishandling of relations with both China and India – and his mysterious reluctance to tackle foreign interference in Canadian politics – has shaken the confidence even of natural supporters. More dangerous to him, though, is his economic leadership, or lack thereof.
In 2015, Mr. Trudeau won by promising to act for “the middle class and those working hard to join it.” He eventually lost that focus, and he responded slowly to voters’ concerns about the cost of living, leaving a huge opening for Pierre Poilievre. He has failed to effectively defend the carbon tax, such that many Canadians are now convinced it is the cause of all their problems, although it is not.
And he failed to prevent a housing crisis. He dramatically increased immigration while there was not enough housing, which should have been obvious because of all the tent encampments. Mr. Trudeau has since responded, but only after Mr. Poilievre positioned himself as the champion of young people struggling to put roofs over their heads. Mr. Trudeau can’t win an election if he can’t convince those voters that he, not Mr. Poilievre, has their backs.
He personally saved the Liberal Party of Canada from ruin, so Liberals are not going to now defenestrate him, Liz Truss-style, but many of his supporters hope he will declare victory and hit the speaker circuit while there may still be time for a new leader to put the house in order.
In February, when I interviewed the Prime Minister, he convinced me that he is sincere in his desire to lead the party into the next election. “I just see it as such a fundamental choice in what kind of country we are, who we are as Canadians,” he told me. “That, for me, is what I got into politics for: to have big fights like this about who we are as a country and where we’re going.”
It may serve his purposes to stay, but not the party’s. The trajectory is very bad. His brand is worn out. He can’t connect. If he runs again, the campaign will inevitably be a referendum on him, which the Conservatives are confident they can win. If he leaves, it might turn into a referendum on Mr. Poilievre, the outcome of which is harder to predict.
A few months ago, a friend of Mr. Trudeau told me that there are four people who might be able to convince him to leave: his old friend and strategist Tom Pitfield, his chief of staff Katie Telford, and cabinet ministers Marc Miller and Dominic LeBlanc. A few weeks later, Globe columnist Lawrence Martin wrote that Mr. Leblanc – who used to babysit Mr. Trudeau when they were young – is talking about running for the job, which is the kind of thing that happens when the ship is taking on water.
Mr. Trudeau has a global brand and a record he can point to with pride, and he can look forward to returning to his lucrative career as a public speaker. That would be easier if he hangs up the gloves while he’s still undefeated.