Canada’s military commanders don’t normally speak out. But our top military man, General Wayne Eyre, is sounding the alarms. He’s spent 34 years in the armed forces stationed all over the world. But 2022, he says, was “unlike any other,” by which he meant worse than any other.
“I think history will view this year as a turning point in the global order,” the Chief of the Defence Staff told the CBC. As he sees it, the global order under U.S. dominance, making countries like Canada secure, is being overturned. Not just on account of the maniacal Russian invasion of Ukraine, but in combination with the severe authoritarian turn of megapower China under President Xi Jinping.
In the wake of 2022, it’s a tripolar world, with the United States and its allies confronting two evil empires. Gen. Eyre equates the situation with being at war with both.
Just a couple of decades ago, the U.S. towered over all its rivals. Relations with Russia and China were distant but co-operative.
Allan Rock, Canada’s United Nations ambassador from 2004 to 2006, recalled in an interview the stunning difference. In those years it was like “a golden age” compared to 2022, which he, too, considers “the worst year.”
“Russia and China were at the table along with everyone else – looking for collective approaches to problems,” said Mr. Rock. It was “a unipolar world.”
But then, Russian President Vladimir Putin “became overtly authoritarian and similarly the open and flexible China that I dealt with in 2005 gradually became more hostile to multilateralism.”
Lloyd Axworthy, Canada’s foreign minister from 1996 to 2000, said on the phone from Winnipeg that it might be right to say we’re at a turning point. “But it’s not as black and white as General Eyre makes out,” he said.
Mr. Putin’s war is going terribly, his country is faltering and he is failing, said Mr. Axworthy. In China, Mr. Xi is experiencing grave difficulties himself, not least as a result of his harsh handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has prompted widespread protests. Both authoritarian leaders are running into the trap dictators inevitably set for themselves, Mr. Axworthy added. If there’s a turning point in the global order, he’s of the view it could be short. There’s a good chance the tyrants won’t be able to maintain power.
But what if they do? Or if their successors go the same autocratic route? As Gen. Eyre noted, Canada’s “national prosperity is based on the stability in the existing order.” If it can’t be maintained, “we’re going to suffer.”
Since Confederation, Canada has had the fortune of being partnered with and protected by two dominant world powers: Britain and the United States. In a new tripolar world, with American paramountcy significantly diminished, that degree of comfort is reduced, with dire implications for our security and economic health. It’s been evident with the impact of the Ukraine war – how it stoked inflation, disrupted supply chains and could lead to a recession.
The changing dynamic sees Canada no longer in a position to play a brokerage role with the major powers to the extent it did in the past. We did that through Lester Pearson on the Suez Crisis. Under Pierre Trudeau, we established diplomatic relations with China before Richard Nixon’s breakthrough. We forged early ties with Mikhail Gorbachev and his right-hand man Alexander Yakovlev and pushed Washington to open diplomatic channels with the Kremlin. On the invasion of Iraq, we steered clear.
But Ottawa’s relations with Russia and China today are now too hardened and hostile for any go-between role. There is obviously no room for compromise with Mr. Putin given his tyrannical turn, though, as Mr. Rock noted, we do have an important role to play in promoting and designing collective strategies to counter him.
With China, we were once leaders among Western countries in outreach and co-operation. Mr. Axworthy recalled the trade missions to the Middle Kingdom under Jean Chrétien. Stephen Harper’s government followed up with one in 2013. But recent times have included the jailing of two Canadians in Beijing as a result of the Meng Wanzhou controversy, the discovery of Chinese interference in our 2019 federal election, and a confrontation in which Mr. Xi publicly scolded Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for making public a private conversation.
The consequence for Canada of the worst year in superpower relations is less influence and more vulnerability; a country more and more at the mercy of events beyond its borders and beyond its control.