In many ways, Danielle Smith has the wind in her sails. She pulled off a narrow electoral victory in May, her Alberta NDP rivals don’t know for certain who their leader will be in a year’s time, and her approval numbers are better than those of most premiers.
That celebratory mood was on display as nearly 3,800 attendees filled a Calgary conference centre at the United Conservative Party’s annual general meeting this past weekend. The Premier was received warmly – a clear departure from many of the final public moments during Jason Kenney’s time as leader.
But the makeup of Ms. Smith’s most active base of support in the party, and its members’ policy positions, suggest that trouble lies ahead for her in 2024, especially on the issue of parental rights. It’s a return to a focus on divisive social issues, and despite her reputation as a right-wing firebrand, Ms. Smith will not relish this.
The party members remaining from the Progressive Conservative or Wildrose Party days were wildly outnumbered by the people who are new to politics. Most controversially, these members voted overwhelmingly in favour of a motion requiring parental consent if a child under the age of 16 wishes to use a different name or pronoun at school, mirroring legislation recently passed in Saskatchewan that has drawn harsh criticism from LGBTQ advocates.
In a way, it’s amazing that the question hasn’t come to Alberta sooner. A clear majority of UCP members at the AGM aligned with the views of Take Back Alberta (TBA), the strident conservative movement built on anger at COVID-19 rules, Ottawa, and, increasingly, issues of gender identity in schools.
Former PC MLA Rick Orman lost his bid to become party president, and other candidates that TBA backed won board positions. TBA founder David Parker, who roamed the AGM with constant energy and glee, also provided his supporters with guidance for voting on governance and policy questions.
If it wasn’t totally clear before, it is clear now who makes up the most active UCP membership: TBA supporters and a host of other groups with a similar world view. And these relative newcomers will not be satisfied with their policy motions gathering dust on a UCP office shelf. Mr. Parker’s constant refrain is that leaders serve, or not, at the pleasure of his movement.
It isn’t the most idle of threats. Ms. Smith will face a leadership review in the next year or two. TBA, with its massive numbers in the party, claims it was the force that unseated Mr. Kenney, mainly for his government’s COVID-19 restrictions.
The current Premier got a standing ovation when she spoke directly to parents, saying “regardless of how often the extreme left undermines the role of parents, I want you to know that parental rights and choice in your child’s education is and will continue to be a fundamental core principle of this party and this government.”
She sounded more nuanced when she later told reporters her caucus will consider the results of policy votes but must ultimately govern in the best interests of the entire province. “We have to make sure that we’re respecting the rights of parents but also making sure kids feel protected and supported,” Ms. Smith said.
She also said the subject doesn’t have to be polarizing, but she knows from history that these social issues are often a political minefield. Part of the reason Ms. Smith infamously crossed the floor – going from leading the Wildrose Party to the backbenches of the governing PCs in 2014 – is because she was increasingly at odds with social conservatives in her party.
The Premier also has a libertarian outlook, and the key tenets of individualism and limited government involvement don’t lend themselves to micromanaging interactions between teachers and parents. Going back to the Alberta election in May, she’s well aware her party lost seats to the NDP in battleground Calgary due to worry that either she or her party were too extreme.
Following the AGM, University of Alberta political scientist Jared Wesley posted on X that he holds out hope that Ms. Smith will not allow TBA to control the provincial agenda. “An unpopular opinion: we need to give Premier Smith and her government the space and grace to push back against TBA+.”
The Premier is going to face immense pressure from those party members. At the AGM itself, one old-school conservative told me that while PC members had the mindset of doing what they could to support the leader against external political rivals, the newer UCP members are more likely to ask, “what have you done for me lately?”
Ms. Smith will have a grace period. But it won’t last long.