Former U.S. president Donald Trump at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster, in Bedminster, N.J., on June 13.ED JONES/AFP/Getty Images
Forget the idea that Donald Trump will again be president of the United States. There’s now a much better chance he’ll be behind bars.
The indictment brought against him in Miami Tuesday, for holding and hiding sensitive top-secret documents, is so devastating and damning that “if even half of [it] is true, he’s toast,” said his former attorney-general William Barr. Attorney Alan Dershowitz, who has been one of Mr. Trump’s foremost defenders, wasn’t standing up for him this time. The 37-charge indictment, he said, is like “a gun with Trump’s fingerprints on it.”
The charges marked yet another contemptible first for Mr. Trump. They made him the first U.S. president to be accused of a federal crime. Two months ago, he was charged with 34 felony counts for an alleged hush-money scheme. One month ago, he was found guilty in a sexual abuse civil case. He was the first U.S. president to be impeached twice. He could soon face charges related to trying to steal an election and inciting a mob attack on Capitol Hill.
He’s claimed innocence every time. It’s the deep state out to get him. They’re all witch hunts. Of the new charges, he said: “Today, we witnessed the most evil and heinous abuse of power in the history of our country … It’s a political persecution like something straight out of a fascist or communist nation.”
The tumultuous Trump saga graduates from the unprecedented to the dangerous
Having turned the Republican Party into a Trumplican one, the disgraced former president thinks the people will believe him. It’s a sorry reflection on modern-day America that so many have. But now it’s different. Now it’s not the court of public opinion he’s up against. It’s the courts of law.
Don’t be taken by that brave, cocky face he showed after the arraignment, said John Kelly, his former chief of staff. He says Mr. Trump is frightened: “He’s never been held accountable before.”
Politically, Mr. Trump is likely to maintain his imposing lead in his campaign for the Republican nomination. Even if his support level substantially drops, he will still likely hold the advantage in a multicandidate field that divvies up the primary vote.
This all plays right into Democrats’ hands. The new charges make Mr. Trump all the more odious as a national candidate. Though his base might remain loyal, there’s next to no chance given his reputation as a serial lawbreaker that he could broaden that support to win a general election. If he’s nominated, Democrats would be well-positioned to rout the Republicans.
But there’s also the danger that these charges will tip the scales – that Republicans will quit defending the indefensible, dump Mr. Trump and bring forward a far more electable nominee.
The political scenarios are wild and without parallel. Primaries begin in just eight months. Mr. Trump could well be on trial in both New York and Florida while they proceed. He could win his party’s nomination and conceivably be sentenced to a jail term during the course of a federal campaign.
Bringing the new charges against the Republican front-runner is a Democratic administration headed by a president, Joe Biden, who is running for re-election. Mr. Biden himself is under investigation – though Democrats don’t fear any charges are forthcoming – for holding classified documents.
It’s all fodder for Republicans to make the case that the indictment was politically motivated, that it’s selective justice, that the system is being weaponized against them.
The steely-eyed Jack Smith, the special counsel who brought the charges against Mr. Trump, has a reputation for being as tough as nails. The former president was not charged with mishandling any of the classified documents that he returned early last year. If he had handed over all classified material when he was subpoenaed, legal experts think he probably wouldn’t have been indicted at all.
But Mr. Trump’s recklessness caught up with him. Keeping the classified documents fed his gluttonous ego, gave him an aura of power.
His hope of pulling off yet another Houdini-type escape lies in the possibility of another Republican winning the presidency and proceeding to pardon him. Candidate Nikki Haley said Tuesday that she would be inclined to issue him a pardon.
It was interesting to hear Republicans as well as some commentators say the charges against a former president marked a sad day for the country. What poppycock. In that they likely hastened the demise of Donald Trump, making it nearly impossible for him to win back the presidency, it was a great day for America.