People attend a rally demanding a cease-fire deal and the immediate release of hostages held by Hamas on Sept. 4, in Tel Aviv.Ariel Schalit/The Associated Press
R. David Harden is the former assistant administrator at USAID’s bureau for democracy, conflict and humanitarian assistance, the former USAID mission director to the West Bank and Gaza, and a former senior adviser to president Barack Obama’s special envoy for Middle East peace.
Nearly a year into its most recent war, Israel faces threats from all quarters. The biggest battle for Israel’s future, however, is playing out on the streets of Tel Aviv, where massive nightly protests are calling for a ceasefire deal with Hamas that returns the hostages home.
In response, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, along with their Jewish extremist base, have threatened to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government if there is any ceasefire deal. In effect, Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing collaborators seek permanent occupation of the West Bank, control of Gaza and rapid settlement expansion in both Palestinian territories.
For 57 years, the Israel Defence Forces have fought Palestinian militants in the West Bank, including just this past week in Jenin and Tulkarem. The Ben-Gvir/Smotrich wing of the Israeli government strives to build “Eretz Israel,” expanding the country’s territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. In this modern Kingdom of Judah, there is no room for a Palestinian state or the Palestinian people. Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich will put their country on a path of endless war to try to secure the kingdom for God’s chosen people.
Meet the citizens of the High-Tech State of Tel Aviv.
Mass protests erupted on Sunday, followed by a general strike, bringing the country to a near-halt over anger at Mr. Netanyahu’s failure to secure a hostage deal. Last year, many of these same demonstrators organized huge weekly protests opposing the Prime Minister’s judicial reforms, contending that they would severely undermine Israel’s democracy by weakening its independent judiciary. The commonality between these protests: strong public opposition to the most right-wing government in Israel’s history.
Europe and North America should not mistake the citizens of the High-Tech State of Tel Aviv as peacenik leftists. The protestors, then and now, believe in a strong Israel, but also champion a nation connected to its neighbours and the world, which values democracy and drives some of the most sophisticated technological advances of the 21st century.
This political and cultural clash between the Kingdom of Judah and the High-Tech State of Tel Aviv will define Israel’s immediate future. This division is so deep that threats from Iran and its proxies, continuing war in Gaza, and uprisings in the West Bank will not sow unity. In fact, these external threats only exacerbate the political grievances within Israel. Despite the protests, Mr. Netanyahu will almost certainly continue fighting in Gaza well after Hamas kills the last hostage.
The Biden administration has effectively given Mr. Netanyahu a blank cheque to sustain its war in Gaza. In so doing, U.S. deterrence also helped contain, for now at least, Israel’s risk of a regional war with Iran. Throughout the Gaza war, the United States has remained deeply aligned with the High-Tech State of Tel Aviv. Both nations hold a common world view, share deep cultural values and bridge the technology space as partners.
The U.S.’s relationship with the Kingdom of Judah tells a different story.
Ben-Gvir /Smotrich extremists work well with the Christian fundamentalist and conservative Jewish communities in the United States and Canada. But the broader North American political spectrum, as well as the traditional foreign-policy establishment, view the Ben-Gvir/Smotrich faction as nativist, extreme ideologists, that are not only dangerous but highly misaligned with the American role in a complex, chaotic and evolving world. The Kingdom of Judah, in fact, accelerates risks to U.S. interests in the Middle East. To illustrate, just over a week ago the U.S. State Department and the Department of Treasury announced new sanctions against Hashomer Yosh, an Israeli non-governmental organization that supports extremist settlers who engage in violence against Palestinian civilians.
The next few months will shape modern Israel’s future. Will the country be the High-Tech State of Tel Aviv or the Kingdom of Judah? Until the U.S. presidential election in November, Mr. Netanyahu will play for time in Gaza, neither securing a total victory against Hamas nor negotiating a release of the hostages. As Joe Biden, a self-described old-school Zionist, steps aside, Mr. Netanyahu has an overwhelming interest in Donald Trump defeating Kamala Harris this fall. In the meantime, expect the Israeli people to seek their own destiny through continual mass protest and demonstration against the Netanyahu government in the lead-up to the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Oct. 7.