The stunning upset for the Liberals in the by-election in Toronto-St. Paul’s has intensified all sorts of chatter about whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should stay on as leader. It was, after all, a catastrophic loss in a once-stronghold; one that came after the Liberals had thrown just about everything at both the riding and the general electorate. But the results were just as catastrophic for someone else, and should call into question his ongoing fledgling leadership: Jagmeet Singh.
Remember him? Guy on the orange team? The team that was once a distinct political entity, that actually managed to form the Official Opposition? You’d be forgiven if you need a little refresher. Mr. Singh is the one who likes to talk about the degeneracy of grocery chain CEOs and how he’s holding this government to account (while also propping it up). He’s also the one who’s supposed to offer Canadians a progressive alternative to the status quo. But for the last half-decade, the only movement he’s offered his party is in the wrong direction.
St. Paul’s is a centre-left riding. For the past two provincial elections, it has voted NDP. (Yes, provincial and federal politics are not analogous, but the results give some indication of the general voting inclinations of the riding’s electorate.) Yet in this by-election, where the Liberals’ support collapsed by nearly 9 percentage points, the NDP also lost support. In a progressive riding, you would expect the NDP would pick up at least some of the runoff.
In 2021, the NDP garnered 16.8 per cent of the vote in St. Paul’s, and that was after the party’s candidate, Sidney Coles, resigned over social media posts linking vaccine scarcity to Israel. This time, the party claimed just 10.9 per cent, a nearly 6-point drop, which is a formidable decline considering it actually had a viable candidate on the ballot this time.
Oh but maybe that was just St. Paul’s, you might say, where the electorate’s particular demographics (it has a large Jewish population) would make the NDP’s prospects challenging at a time when Mr. Singh has been so outspoken against Israel. Well, sure.
But then there was the by-election in Durham, Ont., back in March, which was held to fill the vacancy left by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. In 2021, the NDP took 17.5 per cent of the vote. In the March by-election, that dropped to 10.1 per cent. In the Calgary Heritage riding, the NDP took 17.4 per cent in 2021. In the by-election in July, 2023, that dropped to 14.2 per cent. In Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Westmount, it dropped from 19.2 per cent to 13.8 per cent. In Oxford in Ontario, it dropped from 18.3 per cent to 10.4 per cent. In Portage-Lisgar in Manitoba, it dropped from 13.4 per cent to 7.1 per cent. And in Winnipeg South Centre, it dropped from 20.6 per cent to 14.7 per cent. To be fair, national polls show the NDP’s popular support relatively consistent from 2021, but these are actual tests – not predictions – and the party is failing.
Indeed, these are significant, consistent losses in by-elections across the country, which come at a time when, one would think, at least some of the Liberals’ hemorrhaging support would find a home with the NDP. But really, why would it? Those who have become disillusioned with the Liberal Party’s leadership have the NDP, in part, to thank for lending Mr. Trudeau its support through its supply-and-confidence agreement. The deal came with the illusion of conditions for the NDP’s support, but the terms of those conditions became political plasticine, with Mr. Singh contorting them just enough to free him of any risk of actually bringing down the government. In exchange, Mr. Singh got Diet-Coke versions of social programs for which his party has long pushed – a promise of pharmacare, for example, but only for diabetes medications and birth control – and an ephemeral dose of credit, which will be memory-holed by the Liberal government by the next election, if it hasn’t been already.
Even if the NDP didn’t hitch its wagon to the Liberals’ dying horse, it offers no distinct vision for a better version of Canada. What’s Mr. Singh’s position on the housing crisis? He wants more, cheaper housing. Maybe by forcing banks to give homeowners lower interest rates. What does he think about scheduled increases to the carbon tax? Unclear. Immigration? He doesn’t think that’s what’s putting pressure on housing and institutions. OK. Internet freedoms and online harms? He likes internet freedoms, and doesn’t like harms. Does he have a central vision – maybe a catchy slogan or mantra – that tells Canadians what his party and leadership stand for? Can he describe what he is fighting for, beyond what the Liberals are doing? Is the NDP even trying?
St. Paul’s might have been the death knell for Mr. Trudeau’s leadership, but its sound should reverberate in another hallway on Parliament Hill. It was a terrible showing for a party without purpose, one whose leader seems to deliver only bad results.
Robyn Urback