Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently received warnings from two distinguished former diplomats. They urged him not to anger Donald Trump with what could be viewed as interference in the American election campaign.
Such counsel would normally be given behind closed doors. But David MacNaughton, ambassador to Washington in the Trump years, and Louise Blais, former ambassador to the United Nations, went public in newspapers.
They fear criticism from the Trudeau government could lead to brutal retribution from the volatile former president should he win back the White House. It’s tradition that neither country’s government is to be seen interfering in the other’s elections.
It’s a tradition that’s rarely been broken, but the temptations run high this time because of the extraordinary threat Mr. Trump represents. To give just one example, he has proposed a 10-per-cent tariff on imported goods from all countries. Given that three-quarters of our exports go to the U.S., the effect on the Canadian economy could be disastrous.
What triggered the diplomats’ annoyance was Mr. Trudeau’s recent appointment of two cabinet ministers to lead a Team Canada approach to the U.S. They see that as sending a signal to Mr. Trump that we are getting ready to fight him. More revealing of the Liberals’ take on him is their efforts to paint Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in MAGA colours, feeling that will scare away some of his support.
The American campaign provides an opportunity for Mr. Trudeau to change the conversation from domestic pocketbook issues to a looming external threat. He is credited with doing a reasonably good job of handling the powder keg that was Mr. Trump in his initial term in the Oval Office.
The former president and the Prime Minister overcame acrimony and negotiated a modernization of the North American free trade agreement. But the relationship between them is thorny. Even if Mr. Trudeau was to zip his lips between now and the U.S. election day, the differences would remain. Any displays of favouritism toward Joe Biden, however, would obviously heighten those differences.
Ms. Blais recalled a warning she received during the 2016 election campaign when anti-Trump soundings were coming from the Trudeau government. “We hear what you guys are saying about Trump,” then-House speaker Newt Gingrich told her. “Be very careful because you are picking sides and that is badly seen.”
Mr. MacNaughton, meanwhile, spent several years in Washington dealing with the Trump White House, and wouldn’t be issuing cautions to the Prime Minister’s Office if he thought its approach was wise. I asked him what response he had received from the PMO. He wouldn’t say.
He is also of the view that it is ill-advised for Mr. Trudeau to draw comparisons between Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Trump, saying it won’t work.
Trump-Poilievre comparisons are indeed way over the top. There are similarities, however, between the populist style of conservatism that each leader favours. That style sometimes sees Mr. Poilievre practising the politics of polarization: insulting opponents, attacking mainstream media and claiming the country is falling apart.
MAGA conservatives are especially popular in Alberta. Premier Danielle Smith recently welcomed the cocksure hard-right commentator Tucker Carlson to her province and had dinner with him. Mr. Carlson has called for an invasion of Canada to liberate it from its authoritarian ruler.
Mr. Poilievre has had very little to say about Mr. Trump. And for obvious reasons. He doesn’t want to be seen as supportive, nor does he want to be critical and risk alienating large swaths of his conservative base. It is not surprising that the Liberals want to try and draw him out on the subject.
In addition to the economic threat of Mr. Trump’s trade policies, Canadian interests are imperilled by his dismissive approach to the climate crisis, his scorn for democratic institutions, for abortion and other sexual rights, and the global instability his explosive style risks creating.
One party leader who minces no words about Mr. Trump is NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. He says Mr. Trump is “openly running on an egomaniac, vengeance-filled motive to become the president. And it is incredibly disturbing to watch this.”
Mr. Trudeau no doubt feels the same way. But given the power imbalance between Ottawa and Washington, he would be wise to follow the counsel of the diplomats and be as unprovocative as possible.
There’s a fine line. He can oppose what he sees as Trump-styled conservatism taking root in Canada. But he can’t be seen as opposing Mr. Trump in the election.
Lawrence Martin