Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe speaks during a press conference in Regina, on Oct. 25, 2023.Heywood Yu/The Canadian Press
Saskatchewan is a province known for its wide, open spaces. So it might surprise other Canadians that affordable housing is increasingly a concern there, the same as almost everywhere else.
To be sure, there’s still relative housing affordability in Saskatchewan compared to, say, B.C.’s Lower Mainland. But while rents are now easing in Canada’s largest and most expensive cities, Regina and Saskatoon have seen two-bedroom apartment rents jump by 16 and 18 per cent, respectively. For buyers, the year-over-year increase isn’t quite as dramatic, but the benchmark residential price in Saskatoon reached a record $404,900 in August.
People in Saskatchewan are now feeling the crunch on housing alongside other hikes in the costs of living. And that alters the political landscape, as the issue is likely to figure prominently in the election campaign that will begin in a matter of days. Even as polls suggest Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party is the most likely to win, one of his biggest challenges will be confronting voter anger on affordability.
In this respect, Mr. Moe finds himself amongst strange bedfellows, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and British Columbia’s NDP Premier, David Eby. Inflation in Canada has eased, but many things cost more than they did before the pandemic. According to the Consumer Price Index, prices in Canada are 18.3 per cent higher now than in 2019.
Even though politicians have only a small amount of control over this state of affairs, it means dissatisfaction with incumbents – no matter the political persuasion.
To be sure, the Saskatchewan Party still has the advantage in an election day that’s likely to fall on Oct. 28. No one is suggesting Mr. Moe faces anything similar to the antipathy Mr. Trudeau is contending with, or will even be as tested as Mr. Eby is, in his current election campaign. There is only a narrow path to victory for Saskatchewan’s New Democrats: They must win almost all the urban seats, even in smaller cites such as Moose Jaw and Prince Albert, notes Jim Farney, director of the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy.
But the Saskatchewan Party has been in power for 17 years, a stretch in politics that often begs for a change – never mind the strange recent spate of party infighting that includes allegations of bullying and intimidation.
The Angus Reid Institute notes the gap between the ruling party and the Saskatchewan NDP was just seven percentage points in August. Mr. Moe’s usually solid approval numbers are, at this moment, headed south. And a full two-thirds of voters, including a majority living outside of Regina and Saskatoon, believe the government has performed poorly on the top-ranked issues of health care, public safety and inflation.
Carla Beck, the Saskatchewan NDP Leader, is going hard against the government in traditional areas of strength for her party, including health care and education. But she’s also adapting to this political moment, and says her party would cut the PST on groceries and children’s clothing, suspend the gas tax and enact new tenant protections.
Of course, there are differences between the Prairies and other parts of Canada. For instance, Dr. Farney said the Saskatchewan Party has won elections by not only appealing to those who are ideologically conservative, but also to people who place great value on provincial rights. Both parties are now fighting for these voters, and Ottawa will figure into the election.
As is the case with Alberta’s NDP, Ms. Beck will do what she can to distance her party from her unpopular federal counterparts. Meanwhile, the Saskatchewan Party will take every chance it can to link them – especially when it comes to the still-potent fight over national carbon pricing.
But there’s a new issue on the horizon: With a record 2.8 million temporary residents in the country, concern about the strain on services and housing is rising across Canada. An increasing percentage of Canadians think the number is too high. The federal government, under pressure, is now scrambling to curtail the number of non-permanent workers and students.
Saskatchewan, like Alberta, has long prided itself on how many newcomers arrive and stay each year. Mr. Moe’s government boasted earlier this year that the province is growing by more than 30,000 people annually, a number not seen since the outset of the First World War. ”Immigration,” he said in August, “is a pillar of this province.”
But in recent days, the Saskatchewan Party government joined with other provinces in pushing back against early discussions about relocating some asylum seekers to different parts of the country.
The evolving nature of the Canadian immigration debate and the strain of higher housing costs in Saskatchewan suggests a more interesting political contest than voters there are accustomed to. But it’s one that’s fairly normal for Canada in 2024.