The Saskatchewan Party has won a fifth majority government – no small feat – and will claim 35 of 61 seats in the legislature, subject to a final ballot count. The provincial party created by conservatives and Liberals a quarter-century ago, to present a united front to the then-more-dominant NDP, is moving into the realm of political dynasty.
But you wouldn‘t know it from Leader Scott Moe’s demeanour in the early hours of electoral triumph this week, where he touched on the historic nature of the win but spent more time acknowledging the sound spanking his party got from voters.
“I’ve heard the message that was delivered here,” he said early Tuesday morning. “We must do better. And we most certainly will.”
His constant refrain of “we need to do better” might be atypical for a victory speech, but is actually pitch perfect for the times. Even with the win, the governing party of 17 years can’t ignore the voters who’ve left them. The party’s majority is diminished in size, as the opposition Saskatchewan NDP have nearly doubled their caucus to 26. Several prominent cabinet ministers were given the boot. The province is cleaved along rural and urban lines, with the NDP holding almost all seats in Regina and Saskatoon.
Mr. Moe‘s Saskatchewan Party has joined other governments that have nearly lost their grip on power, or have fallen, this year. No matter the political stripe, it’s a struggle to hold onto incumbency in 2024.
In New Brunswick, Blaine Higgs’s Progressive Conservatives were tossed in favour of the Liberals led by Susan Holt. In British Columbia, David Eby‘s New Democrats won a tight contest to form a majority government but by only one seat, and with two ridings so close that they’re still subject to judicial recounts. Mr. Eby said virtually the same thing to voters as Mr. Moe in the week following his election: “British Columbians sent us, and me, a strong message that we need to do better.”
And if a federal election were called today, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau would be reduced to a small opposition party.
“Recent history has not been kind to incumbent majority governing parties,” Mr. Moe said in his unconventional victory speech.
And now all three of Canada‘s most westerly provinces have legislatures where the majorities are fragile enough that leaders will have to keep an eye on who is in the Legislative Assembly for key votes, and even maintaining the support of MLAs. One or a few floor-crossings could make a big difference. Even in Alberta, Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party won a slimmer majority in 2023 than governments past, with 49 seats to the NDP’s 38.
Saskatchewan has some of the same concerns and dynamics of other provinces, but not all. The province has relatively low inflation and unemployment rates, but rapid population growth has seen a corresponding jump in housing costs. On health care, the Saskatchewan NDP has pointed to the government’s failure to recruit and retain workers, overcrowding in emergency rooms and a dearth of family doctors.
Saskatchewan conservatism has dominated in the past two decades, but the home of Tommy Douglas, Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert has a long history of voting NDP. The current New Democrat Leader, Carla Beck, is a stronger voice than the party has seen in recent years.
In his victory speech, Mr. Moe said – correctly – that voters are most concerned with issues such as health care, education and cost-of-living pressures. But instead of governing that way, he’s been pulled right, to fend off the threat of upstart parties including the Saskatchewan United Party that was created by ousted government member Nadine Wilson two years ago. (The party failed to win any seats on Monday.)
This has shown itself in the Saskatchewan Party’s preoccupation with controversial social or culture-war policies. Last year, Mr. Moe’s government used the notwithstanding clause to pass a law that prevents children under 16 from changing their names or pronouns at school without parental consent. And during this campaign, he announced that his first order of business, if his party was re-elected, would be to ban biological boys from using school changing rooms with biological girls.
The lean to the right appears similar to the situation in New Brunswick, where Mr. Higgs had been laser-focused on the use of pronouns and names by young transgender students. And like Mr. Higgs, Mr. Moe had seen a significant number of caucus members step down or decline to run again.
There is some accounting for missteps now, with Mr. Moe saying he would take the time to reflect on the election results. It‘s unclear what exactly will change. But at least Mr. Moe seems to understand he’s lucky to have the time to ruminate.