Rachel Notley knows Alberta NDP still faces uphill battle in coming election

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At the moment, Rachel Notley’s position looks enviable. Her NDP is leading in the most recent polls. The party is shining in election prep – with 60 candidates nominated, already committed to door-knocking at least six hours per week. More than 1,000 supporters will be at the party’s convention in historically conservative Calgary this weekend – a new record for an Alberta NDP gathering, anywhere.

Ms. Notley’s rival Danielle Smith is in charge right now, but the new Premier’s polarizing takes on everything from vaccination mandates to Alberta autonomy have fired up the NDP base. New Democrats say they received $100,000 in donations in the 24 hours after Ms. Smith was named UCP leader this month, about five times more than usual in a normal day. Voters as a whole fret over Ms. Smith’s ability to discern reality from a gusher of social media quackery.

Moreover, since Ms. Notley became NDP leader in 2014, the NDP has moved from being a party most Albertans perceived only as the rebels banging on the door from the outside to one of two mainstream parties vying for government.

Still, Ms. Notley’s party is far from a shoo-in. Barring a massive political misstep, they will sweep Edmonton in the May provincial election. But NDP candidates have little chance of winning in the truly rural ridings, and the party now holds only three seats in battleground Calgary, whose voters are likely to decide the outcome of next year’s election. The NDP still struggles to get attention from the public or media. Many Albertans still harbour doubts about Ms. Notley’s economic leadership chops.

And Ms. Smith is already in full campaign mode – linking Ms. Notley to the governing partnership between the federal Liberals and NDP in Ottawa. While the Premier has promised to hold true to the tenets that won her the UCP leadership, she still could broaden her policies in the months ahead to appeal to more Albertans.

But Ms. Smith has already given the NDP much to attack on, including having to clarify her comments that the most discriminated group in her lifetime has been the unvaccinated, and apologizing for what she described herself this week as “ill-informed comments on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine” and Ukrainian neutrality.

In an interview, Ms. Notley acknowledges that being in a constant warlike posture for the next seven months isn’t necessarily useful – the political wisdom is that normal people aren’t paying attention to every twist and turn right now, and many Albertans are already exhausted with a barrage of political negativity.

“I’m trying not to be a hard-core attacker of Danielle Smith. I’m just trying to talk policy,” Ms. Notley said as we discussed the strategy of her party leading up to the election.

Even with a wish to focus on health care and hydrogen sector policies, Ms. Notley continues – of course – to engage in the sport of politics. It’s been 3½ years since she and her party were punted from office. They had governed through what was then considered dispiriting years – when there was little hope the province, or the oil and natural gas industry, would ever be the powerhouse they were. The UCP, created and led by Jason Kenney, pushed her party out in 2019 with a promise to be stronger economic leaders, and tougher on the federal Liberals.

Then came the pandemic, and the oil price crash. The UCP splintered on the issue of public health mandates and vaccination passports, and which eventually spurred Mr. Kenney’s resignation.

Now, Ms. Smith will govern through a volatile period of both high energy prices and inflation.

Through all the turbulence, Ms. Notley has been a steady figure on the Alberta political scene.

Still, she is realistic about the tough campaign her party faces in Calgary, and its limited opportunities in rural ridings. She recently presided over a meeting in a barn near Medicine Hat with more than 30 farmers, feedlot owners and rural business owners.

“I would argue that maybe one of the 30 suggested that someday in the future they would not necessarily turn to stone if they voted NDP,” she said. “But the rest of them were still on the ‘we will turn to stone’ side.”

But the meeting did go on for 2½ hours. This is what Ms. Smith and Ms. Notley have in common – beside the fact they’re both women: They listen intently, take copious notes, and are likely to be approached by strangers who get a real hearing for the problem or the issue they’re presenting. Both have loyal advisers around them.

They’re also both pro-choice, and have some agreement on energy and climate policies. For instance, both believe in the importance of sending an Alberta delegation to UN climate change conferences, this year in Sharm El Sheikh.

But that’s probably where the similarities end.

While NDP members gather for their convention in Calgary, the UCP holds its AGM at the resort on the Enoch Cree Nation, just outside Edmonton with about 2,000 attendees on hand to hear Ms. Smith’s keynote address on Saturday. The two parties will be head-to-head this weekend, and for the next seven months to election day.