Rashid Husain Syed is a Toronto-based journalist and contributor to the Pakistani news outlet DAWN.
Concerns about the outcome of general elections in Pakistan, held last Thursday, are gaining steam. Allegations of massive pre- and postpoll rigging are becoming louder.
On the global stage, the Western world is becoming concerned that election interference might have reduced the number of seats won by the PTI, the party of the incarcerated cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan. His party still won the most seats, but fell short of a parliamentary majority.
On Friday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that there should be a full investigation into the allegations of election fraud and interference. He also called into question the “undue restrictions” put in place during Pakistan’s electoral process, expressing concern about allegations of vote-rigging.
U.S. lawmakers, including the Democratic representatives Ro Khanna and Ilhan Omar, also expressed dissatisfaction, with Mr. Khanna saying that there is “growing evidence that the military is interfering and rigging the result.” Both Mr. Khanna and Ms. Omar urged the State Department not to recognize a winner until investigations are conducted into allegations of misconduct.
The West cannot let Pakistan’s democracy wither
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center think tank, said both EU and U.S. State Department statements were “relatively mild … considering the great scale of the rigging that went down.”
As the results began pouring in, the trajectory was clear by late Thursday. PTI-supported candidates were winning with a clear majority in many constituencies, including in Lahore, Islamabad and Faisalabad in the province of Punjab, the main electoral battleground. In Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, many PTI candidates were winning by significant margins until the transmission of results was halted owing to a supposed internet issue.
In the early results, the trajectory was so evident that the eminent Pakistani journalist-turned-senator Mushahid Hussain Syed called it “probably the biggest election upset in Pakistan’s political history in the last 50 years.” Yet, suddenly, the results stopped streaming in. And when the process finally resumed after more than eight hours, the trajectory had taken a complete U-turn, raising serious doubts about the credibility of the election results. Many alleged that the emerging election results were not to the liking of the establishment – and in particular, the army. They then pressured election authorities to change them.
By the time the full results were announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan, the PTI’s seat count had thinned out considerably. PTI now says that it has enough material to prove in the court that its candidates should have won in most constituencies.
There is a growing chorus now that the mandate of the people of Pakistan was stolen in Friday’s early hours. In its editorial on Saturday, the Pakistani newspaper DAWN said: “Unfortunately, though the public’s decision was quite evident, some quarters still attempted to stamp their will over the election results. They should be warned that such meddling is no longer acceptable to the voting public, many of whom, if not most, have made their disapproval of its tactics amply clear.”
This is a repeat of history. In the 1970 elections, the Awami League had emerged as the largest single party in the Constituent Assembly of Pakistan. It was poised to take the reins of the country.
Yet the military junta, in collusion with some politicians, including the founder of the Pakistan People’s Party Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, refused to hand over power to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League. The people’s mandate was stolen. And because of the crisis that followed, Pakistan was dismembered, and in 1971, a new state, Bangladesh, was born.
Pakistan is once again faced with a similar moment. This time, too, it seems the mandate of the Pakistani people is not being respected. If the establishment is not ready to accept the mandate of the people of Pakistan, it will bring chaos, conflict, and deep polarization within the society. It could even lead to fighting in the streets, and full-out warfare. Pakistan cannot afford another 1971.