Leader of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon announces she will step down as Scottish First Minister, on Feb. 15 in Edinburgh.JANE BARLOW/AFP/Getty Images
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
After months of being put on the political back foot, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister and the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), announced on Wednesday that she would be stepping out the door.
Ms. Sturgeon had spent just over eight years running the devolved administration in Scotland, but in the end, she was frustrated in her core mission to deliver her country’s secession from the United Kingdom, despite the political and economic black hole this would likely create. Indeed, just last fall, the U.K. Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish legislature did not have the authority to declare a new independence referendum.
Ms. Sturgeon has also been on the defensive over her championing of the controversial Gender Recognition Reform Bill, which would allow Scots as young as 16 to quickly change their legal gender; the bill was vetoed by the U.K. government on the grounds that it would undermine U.K.-wide equality law.
As a result of these two factors, support for the SNP has slumped. A Lord Ashcroft poll from earlier this week found that the SNP, which has been in power for nearly 16 years, was seen as not tackling health care, the cost of living and the economy, which were listed as voters’ highest-priority issues. Backing for independence has fallen, too, with the same poll finding that 48 per cent of Scots would vote against independence, compared to 37 per cent who would support it.
Ms. Sturgeon’s previously rock-solid position atop the SNP had been facing new challenges from within the party. In December, her close ally Ian Blackford stepped down from his job as the SNP’s Westminster leader amid reports of caucus revolt; the much younger Stephen Flynn went on to defeat Ms. Sturgeon’s preferred candidate for the job.
More fundamentally, there had been clear internal party tension over Ms. Sturgeon’s approach to independence. Since the last referendum in 2014, she has repeatedly sought new ways to push the debate in her favoured direction, but almost a decade later, there is relatively little to show for it.
But whoever replaces her as first minister this spring will likely bring more continuity than change. The SNP still benefits from the political unpopularity of the Conservative-led U.K. government in Scotland. The party can also rely on Brexit as a cudgel, as Scots firmly supported remaining in the European Union in 2016. Ms. Sturgeon’s government has argued that Brexit represents a material change to circumstances since the last independence referendum, and so the Scottish people should be given another vote.
Nonetheless, Ms. Sturgeon’s successor will continue to face major challenges in promoting the independence cause. For instance, there are huge uncertainties whether Scotland would benefit significantly from splitting off. Scotland’s public spending deficit has hit a record high on a per-capita basis, and the country can better stomach that as part of a union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Moreover, the EU has confirmed that an independent Scotland would not have an automatic right to join the Brussels-based club; such an accession may, in fact, require potentially complex and protracted negotiations, especially since EU membership technically requires countries to run a deficit below 3 per cent of GDP. Further, there is also a significant possibility of a harder border between England and Scotland if the latter joined the EU, as an independent Scotland would be required to embrace European-style freedom of movement and thus have a different immigration policy to the United Kingdom.
The influence of the wider United Kingdom would also be damaged by Scottish independence. Though it has certainly shrunk since the days of Empire, the United Kingdom has remained a sizeable political, military and economic force in the postwar era, helping to bolster international security and prosperity while allowing it to earn a reputation for punching above its weight on the world stage. But a U.K. parliamentary committee has warned that losing Scotland’s tax base, especially at this time of fiscal challenge for the U.K., could lead to further budgetary cuts to the armed forces. The U.K.’s large overseas aid budget and extensive network of diplomatic and trade missions would also be affected. The potential cutbacks to the domestic underpinnings of the U.K.’s international clout would undermine its vital hard and soft power.
With continuing political risk over the integrity of the union, and new instability among the leaders of the independence efforts, the case needs to be made again for why Scotland and the United Kingdom are better together.