Alberta NDP leadership candidate Naheed Nenshi answers a question during a leadership debate in Calgary on May 11.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Naheed Nenshi gets a lot of applause from Alberta NDP audiences these days. However, when he called United Conservative Party MLAs the ”monkeys on the other side” at a leadership debate earlier this month, there were murmurs and grumbling. Mr. Nenshi’s quip about decorum during Question Period in the legislature was too ugly to be many New Democrats’ cup of tea.
Still, Mr. Nenshi owes some part of his popularity to being feisty like this. The former Calgary mayor can match the tone of these charged political times, and push back when faced with combative UCPers in the legislature. “I was probably too polite,” he later told CBC, regarding the monkeys reference.
In the Alberta NDP leadership contest that will culminate in one month, Mr. Nenshi remains the one to beat, for all the good and bad that front-runner status entails.
He is likely the main reason the Alberta NDP has more than 85,000 members across the province now instead of the approximately 16,000 the party had at the end of 2023. In March, party heavyweight Rakhi Pancholi dropped out of the leadership race to endorse Mr. Nenshi, citing his ability to expand the party. Labour leader Gil McGowan, too, dropped out this month (he wasn’t able to pay the leadership entrance fees), leaving four candidates in the race.
Calgary, Mr. Nenshi’s home turf, is where the Alberta NDP needs to win a thumping victory in the next provincial election to win a repeat of their one term in office. At this juncture, it’s also the place where Alberta NDP membership sales are growing the fastest.
According to leadership rival Kathleen Ganley’s campaign, the top six ridings for all party membership sales are all in Calgary. Her Calgary-Mountainview has the most NDP members (3,500 people) of any constituency in the province.
In a development that would have been seen as unlikely even a year ago, current Leader Rachel Notley’s Edmonton-Strathcona riding – long the heartland of the party – is in the same realm for membership sales as Calgary-Glenmore. The latter riding, where the NDP’s Nagwan Al-Guneid won by 48 votes in the 2023 election, has been a conservative bastion for most of its history.
Nothing is for certain yet. Now that membership sales have closed, making sure people actually turn out to vote will become the focus for each leadership campaign. Ballots are going out at the end of the month, with the option to vote online, by telephone or by mail. A sendoff party for Ms. Notley will be held on June 21 – the day before all ballots must be received.
The curse of the front-runner could still take hold. This contest has a preferential voting system of the type that has seen past perceived front-runners fall (think of Andrew Scheer’s surprise victory against Maxime Bernier in the 2017 federal Conservative leadership race, or Stéphane Dion’s win in the 2006 federal Liberal contest). Second-choice selections will matter. Some of the people who joined the party with the express intention of voting for Mr. Nenshi could change their minds.
And the race is about far more than mainstream media headlines. Both Ms. Ganley and Edmonton candidate Sarah Hoffman – the latter a former health minister – have detailed answers for policy questions, and are door-knockers extraordinaire. Candidate Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse is laser-focused on water issues.
Ms. Hoffman in particular can hold a candle to Mr. Nenshi on debating, and has been the most furious challenger to him, taking him to task for his past positions on affordable housing and minimum wage.
That has left Mr. Nenshi battling at times against what he calls the NDP “purity test.” For instance, all the candidates point to the fact the Alberta NDP membership must ultimately decide whether to keep the provincial party’s formal connection to the federal party. But Mr. Nenshi – the candidate least enamoured with that formal relationship with the federal NDP – has pushed back against Ms. Hoffman’s contention that Alberta NDP members can simply unsubscribe from the federal party e-mail lists if they don’t like it.
The Nenshi campaign starts from the premise that Albertans are fundamentally centrist, and that attracting broader support – including from men and energy workers – is key. He has questioned why the provincial NDP would be affiliated with a federal organization it doesn’t control, that’s unpopular in Alberta, and is often at odds with the province when it comes to energy policy. These divisions between Ms. Hoffman and Mr. Nenshi are likely to be on display in the Edmonton leadership debate on June 2.
Ultimately, many Alberta NDP members – especially the newer ones – will adopt the perspective of the pragmatic underdog: seeking the candidate most likely to beat Premier Danielle Smith.