Former U.S. president and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump meets with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at Winfield House, on Dec. 3, 2019, in London, U.K.Evan Vucci/The Associated Press
Kelly Craft is the former U.S. ambassador to Canada.
As Canada prepares for NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington, many people are wondering whether Donald Trump is going to return to the White House – and what his return would mean for U.S.-Canada relations.
Mr. Trump is indeed likely to return. U.S. President Joe Biden is the most unpopular president since the end of the Second World War. He recently hit a new low of 37.4 per cent approval in the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, while 86 per cent of Americans say he is too old for another term. He faces double-digit disapproval on every issue. So, as a friend of Canada, my message is simple: Buckle up and get ready for a second Trump presidency.
Mr. Trump’s return will be good for North America and the NATO alliance. Mr. Trump raised U.S. defence spending to near-historic highs. He made America an energy superpower again. He eliminated the Islamic State’s physical caliphate. He took out Iran’s terrorist mastermind Qassem Soleimani. He brokered not one but three Arab-Israeli peace accords. And he is the only president in the 21st century on whose watch Russia did not invade one of its neighbours.
But Mr. Trump is going to expect some things from our allies – particularly from our closest ally. Canada is the sixth-wealthiest country in the NATO alliance. Yet it is sixth from the bottom in terms of defence spending. At the 2014 NATO summit in Wales, Canada agreed that all allies must spend a minimum of 2 per cent of GDP on defence. Well, here we are a decade later and Canada is spending just 1.38 per cent of GDP on defence – behind Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia. The only NATO allies who spend less on defence are Slovenia, Turkey, Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg.
Canada just reaffirmed its commitment to that 2-per-cent minimum last year at the NATO summit in Vilnius. Yet the government has committed to increase defence spending to just 1.76 per cent by 2030 – a meagre increase of just $8.1-billion over five years. Albania and Bulgaria manage to spend 1.8 per cent.
That’s not going to fly under a second Trump administration. Defence Minister Bill Blair recently said that we must “uphold the global rules that underpin our prosperity and sovereignty.” He’s right. But Canada can’t say it supports the global rules-based order if it is unwilling to pull its weight in the alliance that defends it.
The same is true when it comes to Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an atrocity – and it is in both our countries’ interests to help Ukraine defend itself from Vladimir Putin’s unjust aggression. And since Russia’s invasion, the United States has provided Ukraine with more than US$175-billion in support – including US$61-billion Congress just approved. Canada has committed just $13.3-billion to help Ukraine over two years. That’s not good enough.
Many allies are quietly concerned about what Mr. Trump will do in Ukraine. Keep in mind, it was Mr. Trump who gave Ukraine the lethal aid that Barack Obama and Mr. Biden refused to provide after Russia’s 2014 invasion. He has great affection for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he calls a “very honourable man,” and has said “I would tell Putin: If you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give [the Ukrainians] a lot. We’re going to give them more than they ever got, if we have to.”
But what President Trump is not going to do is allow the American people to carry the lion’s share of the burden while allies don’t pull their weight. Canada needs to step up and spend more on its own defence and provide more help to Ukraine.
It’s in Canada’s interests to do just that. The vast majority of the military aid money we provide for Ukraine does not actually go to Ukraine – it is being spent in the U.S. to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles, reinvigorating our defence industrial base and creating good-paying manufacturing jobs for American workers. The same should be true in Canada.
The Canadian government recently released a new defence strategy, which declared that it is Canada’s goal to “build a strong defence industrial base to help meet Canadian defence and security needs.” Among the specific goals was to “accelerate the establishment of new artillery ammunition production capacity in Canada” and “a reliable Canadian supply of NATO-standard ammunition.” Canada can advance those goals by providing Ukraine with more Canadian-made artillery and ammunition.
Increasing aid will not only strengthen Canada’s defence production capacity, it is a backchannel way to modernize the Canadian military. Ukraine needs weapons immediately, which means Canada can ship weapons from existing stockpiles that are often decades old and then replace them with newer, more advanced versions. By increasing aid to Ukraine, and structuring that aid to provide Kyiv with Canadian-made weapons, Canada can strengthen its domestic defence industry, create jobs and make it easier for Canada to meet its NATO commitments.
I know this is a tough message. But it is delivered by a friend who loves this country. Canadian and U.S. forces have stood together from the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of Afghanistan. We are each other’s largest trading partner. And we share a common North American heritage. I believe that a second Trump term will strengthen NATO and usher in one of the greatest eras in U.S.-Canada relations – if Canada does its part.