Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (centre) inspects troops with National Defence Secretary Luis Cresencio Sandoval (left) and Mexican Navy Secretary Jose Rafael Ojeda Duran during the military parade for the 214th anniversary of Independence Day at the Zocalo Square in Mexico City on Sept. 16.CARL DE SOUZA/AFP/Getty Images
Jean-Pierre Kingsley was chief electoral officer of Canada between 1990 and 2007. He has accompanied Mexican electoral officials in their successful drive to electoral democracy since 1992 and was made a Member of the Order of the Aztec Eagle of Mexico, the highest honour bestowed on non-Mexicans.
On Sept. 16, Mexico marked its independence from Spain, the result of a revolutionary war that lasted from 1810 to 1821.
For many Mexicans, however, it was a muted celebration, tinged in sadness, as the democracy that so many of them had fought for is being eviscerated.
Over the last few weeks, the president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, finally achieved his fourth and last wave of reforms: signing a decree to amend the country’s constitution such that judges throughout the land would be elected to office directly by popular vote, including the judges on the all-important Supreme Court. The first lesson autocrats have learned is to control the judiciary.
Congress had resisted his earlier attempts in this direction, because AMLO and the Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Morena) Party he founded did not command the qualified majority of two-thirds of representatives in both houses. The elections in June of this year saw sufficient victories by candidates from Morena, along with those from allied parties, to achieve the necessary two-thirds majority in Congress’s lower house; he then “persuaded” the additional three senators he needed to achieve his constitutional amendment for the judiciary.
The repercussions for Mexican democracy do not end there, unfortunately, although that is sufficient unto itself. Independent agencies – which form part of democracies and which enshrine rights beyond governmental purview, such as the auditor-general, the human-rights commission, the privacy commission, etc. – will see their governance structures similarly led by Morena-approved persons sympathetic to the government’s wishes. That includes the two agencies with a direct bearing on the very fibre of democracy, on the legitimacy of the Congress itself: the Institute Nacional Electoral (INE), which runs elections in Mexico and regulates election financing and advertising, and the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF), which adjudicates electoral disputes and certifies votes. They do this work for elections at the national level (which includes presidential elections), the state level and the municipal level, the latter through arrangements with local authorities. The implications are clear: over time, Morena candidates will find favour with sympathetic councillors and judges, and the results of elections will be tainted; the President and the government’s populist agenda will continue to prevail, as it does in such places as Cuba and Venezuela.
The impact on the war on drug syndicates is bound to be felt as well, especially in the light of the direct election of judges. AMLO is not reputed to have toughened up in the war on drugs over the course of his administration.
Mexico’s president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, who was hand-picked by Mr. López Obrador to succeed him, has clearly stated her position in favour of these populist reforms. Her political career and her recent successes are owed to him. It is expected that he will have continued involvement in Ms. Sheinbaum’s government when she takes power on Oct. 1, which will make him a classic eminence grise; Ms. Sheinbaum was seated next to AMLO when he signed the reforms into law.
One more burgeoning democracy veers toward autocracy with an all-powerful presidency, and this one is close to home for Canadians – much too close.
The repercussions are bound to be felt in the trilateral relationship between Canada, the United States and Mexico, with the free-trade agreement expected to be renegotiated in 2026. In particular, the business climate with foreign investment in Mexico will be undoubtedly affected, with the knowledge that the courts will always favour the government in any dispute. Already, the Canadian and American ambassadors to Mexico have spoken out against the reforms; they were publicly rebuked by AMLO, and communications with them have been paused.
More importantly, however, Mexicans themselves, while initially being favoured by a populist agenda, will also soon learn the price of lost freedoms, including the inalienable right to criticize the government and the individual rights which only a democracy can provide. Despite AMLO’s claims that the reforms are aimed at achieving “authentic democracy” reflecting the will of the people, protests had tried to disrupt the reform’s approval in recent weeks. Regrettably, some of the protests during the election itself did not bear sufficient fruit.