People demonstrate as French President Emmanuel Macron's motorcade drives past in in Noumea, New Caledonia, on May 23. Mr. Macron has landed in riot-hit New Caledonia, having crossed the globe by plane from Paris in a high-profile show of support for the French Pacific archipelago wracked by deadly unrest and where indigenous people have long sought independence from France.Ludovic Marin/The Associated Press
When Emmanuel Macron visited New Caledonia last year, the French President promised a bright future for the South Pacific territory that had been part of France since 1853. In three successive referendums between 2018 and 2021, New Caledonians had rejected independence, and a confident Mr. Macron vowed a new chapter of reconciliation.
“New Caledonia is French because it has chosen to be French,” he told a crowd of 10,000 people gathered in the capital Nouméa, during a speech in which he called for “dialogue” with separatist leaders who had boycotted the 2021 plebiscite. “To once again take refuge in silence, in insolation, in separatism, is to choose, today or tomorrow, the risk of violence.”
Violence is indeed what has gripped New Caledonia, as the territory becomes the locus of a geopolitical struggle pitting France against China and Russia.
Mr. Macron landed again in Nouméa on Thursday, this time in the wake of the worst riots to hit the territory in almost four decades. A constitutional amendment tabled by Mr. Macron’s government that would expand the right to vote in local elections – and any future referendum – to more non-Indigenous New Caledonians had triggered widespread violence and looting that had left at least six people dead since May 13. More than 1,000 French gendarmes have been sent to restore calm and dismantle road blockades. Two thousand more are promised.
But while the amendment that passed the French National Assembly and Senate was the spark that started this latest fire, prior interference in New Caledonia’s political affairs by pro-Russian and pro-Chinese actors created the conditions for the flames to spread. Their campaigns to incite anti-French sentiment come as China seeks to assert control in the Indo-Pacific region and Russia aims to sow chaos.
New Caledonia, known in French as la Nouvelle-Calédonie, has taken on increasing strategic importance in recent years both because of its location, only 1,500 kilometres from Australia’s eastern coast, and its abundance of nickel, with the world’s fourth-largest reserves. Mr. Macron has been eager to integrate New Caledonia’s production into European electric-vehicle battery supply chains. But almost 40 per cent of New Caledonia’s current nickel exports go to China, which dominates the global EV battery market.
What is happening in New Caledonia, France’s Pacific outpost aflame with violent riots
Nickel prices have plummeted since 2022 on the heels of a tripling in output by the world’s largest producer, Indonesia. The price decline has taken a heavy toll on New Caledonia’s economy, with Swiss-based mining colossus Glencore announcing plans this year to sell its nickel mine there. Global demand for nickel is nevertheless projected to grow rapidly by 2030 and the prospect of China filling the void left by Glencore unsettles Paris and Washington.
Indeed, in his speech in Nouméa last year, Mr. Macron criticized separatist leaders who had suggested an independent New Caledonia would benefit from closer ties with China. “If independence means choosing tomorrow to have a Chinese [naval] base here or to be dependent on other fleets, good luck! That’s not called independence,” he said then.
In recent years, Beijing has cultivated ties with the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front, the main pro-independence coalition in New Caledonia. Indigenous New Caledonians, who make up about 41 per cent of the territory’s population of 270,000, are called Kanaks. The separatist group has developed even closer links with Moscow dating from the Soviet era.
France’s political and military support for Armenia in a long-standing conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has also made it a target of Azerbaijan’s pro-Russian government. France accuses Azerbaijan of fanning anti-colonialist sentiment in New Caledonia and other overseas French territories. Social-media posts this month showed some rioters in New Caledonia brandishing Azerbaijan flags, leading France to ban TikTok in the territory. French authorities this week linked an “unprecedented” cyberattack in New Caledonia to IP addresses in Russia.
Whether or not Moscow has had a direct hand in sowing unrest in New Caledonia, Russian President Vladimir Putin can hardly be unhappy with the French President’s latest troubles. Mr. Putin is still steaming after Mr. Macron earlier this year refused to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine, a stand he reiterated earlier this month. Russia has waged major disinformation campaigns in former French colonies in Africa, and French troops were expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger after recent coup d’états. They have been replaced by Russian mercenaries.
Mr. Macron has a major political crisis on his hands only weeks before the opening of the Paris Olympic Games. Plans for the Olympic flame to pass through New Caledonia next month have been cancelled. And the new chapter the French President hoped to open in New Caledonia now looks like it could end very badly.