Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Quebec Premier François Legault sit down for a bilateral meeting in Montreal, on March 15.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
Thirty years ago this month, a 23-year-old natural-born politician named Mario Dumont quit the Quebec Liberals to co-found a new political party. Mr. Dumont’s Action Démocratique du Québec represented a “third way” in Quebec politics, and a break from the federalist-sovereigntist divide.
It took a while for the ADQ to come into its own. But by 2007, it had overtaken the Parti Québécois to become the official opposition in the National Assembly, thanks to a nationalist platform that called for more autonomy for Quebec within Canada – thus ending a three-decade-old Liberal-PQ duopoly.
Though Mr. Dumont once seemed destined to become Premier, the ADQ ultimately foundered because of its own MNAs’ inexperience and its more wily political adversaries. In 2011, a former PQ cabinet minister named François Legault capitalized on the ADQ’s woes to create the Coalition Avenir Québec, absorbing Mr. Dumont’s party the following year and usurping its autonomist credo.
On Tuesday, Mr. Legault – now the Premier – was the guest of honour at the launch of new book marking the 30th anniversary of the ADQ’s founding and the CAQ’s rise to power. His attendance was an acknowledgment of the debt he owed to Mr. Dumont and the ADQ, which pioneered the “third way” in Quebec politics.
Indeed, it was not until the CAQ began clearly emphasizing its autonomist platform that it started its ascent in the polls, which ultimately led to its 2018 victory over its Péquiste and Liberal rivals. At the core of that platform was a vow to seek exclusive powers from Ottawa over language, culture and immigration that were seen as critical to protecting Quebec’s distinct identity.
Unfortunately for Mr. Legault, he has little to show for his efforts. Not only has his CAQ government failed to gain new powers for Quebec within Canada, but it has watched helplessly as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals trample repeatedly on provincial turf to launch new programs.
The headlines after a meeting last week between Mr. Legault and Mr. Trudeau said it all. “Legault suffers another refusal on immigration,” Le Devoir blared. “Legault leaves empty-handed,” Le Journal de Montréal chimed.
Under a 1991 deal with Ottawa, Quebec chooses its own economic immigrants. But the federal government retains control over refugee and family reunification programs, as well as the temporary foreign worker and international student schemes.
With more than 500,000 temporary workers, foreign students and asylum seekers now living in the province, most of whom do not speak French, Mr. Legault has insisted Quebec needs full control over immigration to stem the flow. He has even framed the issue as a “question of survival for the Quebec nation.”
At best, Mr. Trudeau has agreed to impose visa requirements on some Mexican visitors to Canada to reduce asylum claims and possibly give Quebec a say in choosing temporary workers. But he has drawn a clear line on ceding formal powers.
“There is no country in the world that is going to give control over immigration to one part of its territory,” Mr. Trudeau told Radio-Canada after meeting with Mr. Legault.
Mr. Trudeau is a strong-central-government Liberal. His stand on immigration is based on genuinely held views about the division of powers. But he also has his own political reasons for refusing Mr. Legault’s demands.
At the very least, it helps the Bloc Québécois fight off Conservatives in francophone ridings outside Montreal, where the Liberals are not a factor, but where a Tory win could cost the Grits power. And it buttresses the Liberals’ claim in English Canada as the only party unwilling to bend to Quebec nationalists to win seats in the province.
Even so, Mr. Trudeau’s refusal to budge on ceding power to Quebec over immigration also plays into the hands of PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who argues that without the threat of sovereignty hanging over its head, Ottawa will never cede an inch to Quebec. Mr. Legault, who has vowed never to hold a referendum on sovereignty, thus has no leverage.
On Wednesday, yet another poll showed the PQ increasing its lead over the CAQ. The Leger online survey pegged support for the PQ at 34 per cent, fully 12 percentage points ahead of the CAQ. With 42-per-cent support among francophone voters, compared to 25 per cent for the CAQ, the PQ would win a majority government.
The next election is not until 2026. It is far too soon to count Mr. Legault out. But the CAQ is clearly bleeding support to the PQ among Quebec nationalists who have soured on the CAQ’s autonomist platform as an alternative to independence.
Three decades after the ADQ’s founding, it is almost as if Quebec politics has come full circle. And the “third way” is losing converts by the day.