Justin Trudeau’s flock is abandoning its shepherd

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Oct. 22, 1844, was known as the Great Disappointment to followers of William Miller, an American preacher who promised the second coming of Jesus Christ would come on that day. (That was, in fact, the revised date, after his previous prophecy forgot to adjust for the transition from BC to AD.) When Jesus did not end up making his earthly return, Millerites, as they came to be known, were bitterly dismayed, and many immediately left the flock. Some broke off to form their own Adventist groups with separate beliefs about Christ’s return, but Millerism itself was over (even if Miller remained steadfast in his prophecies until his death in 1849).

The lesson: When a movement can’t hang onto its most ardent followers, it is as good as done.

In this probably overwrought analogy, the Liberal Party’s Great Disappointment came on June 24, when it lost the long-time Liberal riding of St. Paul’s in Toronto in a by-election (although I reserve the right to adjust for the transition between BC to AD if the Great Disappointment actually comes next week, depending on the results of the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election in Montreal).

The results from St. Paul’s catalyzed calls from current and former Liberal MPs for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign. It spawned polling about Canadians’ views about the future of the Liberal Party without Mr. Trudeau. And in the subsequent weeks, Michael McLeod, a long-time Liberal MP representing the Northwest Territories, announced he would not be seeking re-election, while Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan stepped down from cabinet, adding that he would also not be running in the next election. Since January, more than a dozen Liberal MPs have indicated they will not run.

The summer was supposed to provide a cooling-off period: a time when Liberals could get their heads and bodies out of Ottawa, when barbecues and campfires would mask the smell of looming political death. And it did – sort of. The momentum of the push for Mr. Trudeau’s resignation immediately after the St. Paul’s disaster appeared to slow down. But the Prime Minister’s personal unpopularity did not abate. He cancelled his scheduled appearance at the Calgary Stampede in July; a crowd in Vancouver booed when Mick Jagger mentioned Mr. Trudeau during a Rolling Stones concert; and calls in Canada’s opinion pages for the Liberal Leader to resign to give his party a fighting chance did not take the summer off.

Things have only picked up since Labour Day. In a move that reportedly blindsided the government, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh abruptly announced last week that he was ending his party’s confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals. Mr. Singh may have noticed that the rotting stink from the Liberals’ political death was leaching onto his clothes, so he decided to part ways with them after 2½ years, ostensibly before the smell became too ingrained to wash out.

A day later, Jeremy Broadhurst, who was supposed to steer the Liberal campaign in the next election, confirmed that he was stepping down from his post as national campaign director. In a statement, Mr. Broadhurst said that the party deserves “someone who can bring more energy and devotion to the job than I can at this stage of my life.” According to the Toronto Star, however, Mr. Broadhurst had told Mr. Trudeau in August that he was resigning, and that it was because he didn’t believe the Prime Minister could win. The Star also reported that a third of the Liberal caucus was not expected to attend the party’s retreat this week in Nanaimo, B.C., which is not the type of attendance a party leader might expect if his followers are energized, committed and optimistic about the future.

And The Globe and Mail reported this week that five of Mr. Trudeau’s 38 ministers will lose, or already have lost, their chiefs of staff, which represents a significant exodus of senior government staffers. That’s on top of the expected resignation of Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez, who is believed to be seeking the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party.

Polling has demonstrated, particularly over the past year, that Canadians are abandoning Mr. Trudeau and his government. The events of the past few months, however, have signalled that even his acolytes have lost faith, too. If he can’t hold onto cabinet ministers, backbenchers, chiefs of staff or his campaign director – if he can’t even get a third of his caucus to come to Nanaimo for a couple of days – what is Mr. Trudeau actually leading?

A preacher without a congregation is just a guy with a big lectern. When the disciples stop listening, the movement is as good as done.