Justin Trudeau partakes in that great Canadian tradition: refusing to quit as PM

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I suppose it could have been worse for the Liberals. For example, their candidates in Monday’s by-elections might have ended the night by donning Conservative colours and shouting “vive la révolution.”

But as it was, all they did was lose a riding in Montreal they’ve held almost continuously for 40 years – a riding they won by more than 20 points in 2021 – while taking just 4.8 per cent of the vote in the other, in Winnipeg: one of the worst showings by a governing-party candidate in any by-election in our history. (The worst, according to the economist and statistics maven Trevor Tombe: the Conservatives in Laurier-Sainte-Marie in 1990, with 4.5 per cent.)

This, of course, on top of the loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s that began the summer. The question is inescapable: If Liberal seats are no longer safe on the Island of Montreal or in the centre of Toronto, where are they safe? And the answer, if the polls are anything to go by, is: nowhere.

Justin Trudeau pledges to forge ahead after Liberals lose another fortress riding

The last five polls, all by reputable pollsters – Nanos, Abacus, Ipsos, Leger, Angus Reid – put the Grits an average of 20 points behind the Conservatives. They have been at least 15 points behind for the better part of a year.

There are precedents for a governing party being that far behind for that long: the Conservatives in 1993, the Liberals in 1984. They didn’t end well for the incumbents. I’ve looked at polling data back to 1940: There is no case of a government coming back to win from this kind of deficit, especially this late in the cycle.

Indeed, on current form the Liberals are headed for one of the worst shellackings in their history. Some recent seat projections have them finishing in fourth. And yet the Prime Minister is adamant: “I’m not going anywhere.”

Of course he isn’t. If there is one constant in Canadian political history, it is the Prime Minister Who Stays Too Long. Of Justin Trudeau’s 22 predecessors in the office, just two – Mackenzie King in 1948, and Lester Pearson in 1967 – went out on top and on their own terms, handing off to their successor in time to win the next election. (A third, Robert Borden, retired on the advice of his doctors in 1920; however, his chosen successor, Arthur Meighen, was defeated in the election the following year.)

Twelve prime ministers were sent packing by the voters, including not only such one-term wonders as Alexander Mackenzie or R. B. Bennett, but storied names like Wilfrid Laurier and Louis St. Laurent – and Stephen Harper. Two died in office: Sir John A. Macdonald, by then every one of his 76 years, and Sir John Thompson, poor fellow, who died of a heart attack at 49.

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Five more resigned. Of these three – Sir John Abbott, Sir Mackenzie Bowell and Jean Chrétien – did so unwillingly, the latter exceedingly so, following several years of internecine warfare with his successor, Paul Martin. Two more – Brian Mulroney in 1993 and Pierre Trudeau in 1984 – retired only after it was clear they were heading for a thumping, having set their party irrevocably on course for catastrophe.

The last two examples, oddly, might argue for keeping Justin Trudeau on. The truly disastrous election defeats governments have endured have not been, typically, under the Old Man, but the new. Changing leaders was the great hope of governing parties in 1984 and 1993: both surged ahead, briefly, in the polls. But in neither case, needless to say, did the surge last.

By contrast, the other sitting prime ministers to be defeated in an election (including Macdonald, King, Meighen and Trudeau the elder, the only prime ministers to lose one election and win the next) still managed to hold onto an average of 34 per cent of the seats: about 115 seats in today’s House of Commons. At this point the Liberals would have to count that as a miraculous deliverance.

Opinion: With the Liberals losing once-safe seats, an election can’t be far off

Still, managing defeat is a long way from victory. If, as seems likely, Mr. Trudeau’s government were to fall in a non-confidence vote, probably over the spring budget, he would be just the seventh prime minister in our history to suffer this fate. (Macdonald in 1873 and King in 1925 were almost certain to do so, but resigned rather than see the question put to a vote.)

Of the six previous, four – Meighen in 1926, John Diefenbaker in 1963, Joe Clark in 1979 and Mr. Martin in 2005 – went on to lose the ensuing election. Just two – Pierre Trudeau in 1974 and Mr. Harper in 2011 – were able to convert parliamentary defeat into electoral victory. And both were ahead in the polls at the time – not 20 points behind!