When Canadians think about what a win by Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election will mean for Canada, it’s usually the question of whether his pledge of a 10-per-cent tariff on all imported goods would apply to our automotive parts or oil.
But Jason Kenney has a separate worry. The former Alberta premier is contemplating what a second Trump term in the White House will mean for Canada if the MAGA leader finds even the smallest sliver of success in another of his gigantic promises: to lead the largest deportation program in U.S. history. The Homeland Security Department estimated there were 11 million people in the United States illegally in 2022. That number has likely grown since. Despite the many legal, logistical and moral barriers – and what is likely an inflated number – Mr. Trump said he will deport as many as 20 million people.
Mr. Kenney, who also served as federal immigration minister for nearly five years, believes if this goes ahead – even in smaller numbers – Canada will be an obvious alternative for many. And the messaging that comes from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau immediately after the U.S. votes on Nov. 5 matters.
“If Mr. Trudeau says the wrong things that invite this kind of movement, we could see potentially hundreds of thousands or even more out-of-status people in the United States rushing the northern border,” Mr. Kenney said, speaking to executives at the Global Business Forum in Banff last week.
The 20-year-old Safe Third Country Agreement between the U.S. and Canada means that people seeking refugee-status protection must make a claim in the first of the two countries they arrive in, unless they qualify for an exception. Canada doesn’t have to accept asylum seekers from the U.S., “But we do not have the capacity to police that border if it’s rushed by hundreds of thousands of people,” Mr. Kenney said. At the least, he said Ottawa needs to plan for this and “not to politicize this, not to virtue-signal, but to make it clear we will not accept hundreds of thousands of folks asylum-shopping in Canada.”
Even out of politics, Mr. Kenney is still a political animal – the combative jabs at the Liberals are ever-present. He believes Mr. Trudeau might invite more newcomers to Canada because of his low approval numbers – “One of the strategies of desperation.” Speaking to The Hub last month, Mr. Kenney speculated the Trudeau government allowed immigration to surge to record levels for political reasons. “They imagined, with these high levels, both on the permanent and temporary side, that they’re creating a new permanent Liberal voting bloc,” he said. As The Hub noted, this is similar to the accusations that have been levelled against U.S. Democrats – that by welcoming newcomers, they are attempting to secure grateful future voters.
Here in Canada, the federal Liberals have realized late that they need to rein in the immigration system. Ottawa is moving to shrink the number of temporary foreign residents, including international students and workers. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has in recent days even spoken about reducing the number of permanent residents allowed into the country each year.
It’s hard to imagine the Prime Minister would be politically tone-deaf enough to not realize Canadian sentiment toward immigration has shifted, greatly, in the last two years – or that Mr. Trudeau would say anything resembling his January, 2017, tweet: “To those fleeing persecution, terror and war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith.” That was right after Mr. Trump imposed a travel ban meant to prevent citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries from entering the U.S.
And “asylum-shopping” is not what most desperate people on the planet think they’re doing. For instance, hundreds of thousands risk injury, sexual assault and death each year to trek through Colombia and Panama’s untamed Darién Gap in the hope of eventually getting to the U.S.
But Mr. Kenney is right when he says major concerns for Canadians – housing, access to health care and a “broken” immigration system – have the potential to get worse before they get better. The country is already grappling with record numbers of asylum seekers, or refugee claimants. “If you take that the current pressure, which is enormous, and if you add to it ... it could push our system over a tipping point,” he said in an interview on the sideline of the forum. It could also further undermine Canadians’ already weakened faith in the immigration system.
If he was still immigration minister, Mr. Kenney would make changes such as beefing up the Safe Third Country Agreement and increasing the Canada Border Services Agency’s resources. “I would make it clear that Canada is an open and welcoming country, but you have to go through the normal legal process.”