Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes his way to talk to reporters in the foyer of the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on May 28.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
“One important thing I learned in politics,” said Herb Dhaliwal, the British Columbia Liberal who served in the cabinets of Jean Chrétien, “is that once people have made up their minds, they’re not about to change.”
He was talking about Justin Trudeau’s situation. For a year now, Mr. Trudeau and his Liberals have been light years behind the Conservatives. They currently trail in various polls by 15 to 20 points. No other Liberal prime minister has ever had this kind of sustained and appalling deficit. If ever Canada’s “natural governing party” was in the throes of a death spiral, it’s now.
Many party members realize this, but they’re afraid to speak out. If they don’t do so soon, their dead man walking may well feel he has enough support to keep walking – right over a cliff, with the party in tow.
Liberals aren’t normally so tongue-tied. We recall when Mr. Chrétien was winning majorities and maintaining great leads in the polls of 20 points. Yet party members, feeling he’d been around too long, rebelled under Paul Martin and put incredible pressure on Mr. Chrétien to leave.
Senator Percy Downe, who served at the time as Mr. Chrétien’s chief of staff, has been one of the only Liberals brave enough to call, as he did in November, for Mr. Trudeau’s removal.
“The hour of decision is here,” he said in an interview this week. “The election is still winnable if we pick the right leader and move to the centre.”
He’s heard from many Liberal MPs who agree with him on the need for a change. In the party’s regional caucuses there are rumblings, he said, and there is growing angst among cabinet members. Some Liberals have quietly begun preparations for leadership campaigns.
But it’s not enough. To force Mr. Trudeau’s hand, the rumblings have to get much louder. More pressure tactics are needed. Respected voices in the party need to visit the PM for candid discussions or write opinion pieces saying his time has come. MPs must speak out in national caucus and make sure the media hears about it. Pollsters that Mr. Trudeau knows well – such as Frank Graves, who says the numbers are so dire they’re almost impossible to reverse – must lay it on the line to him.
Potential leadership candidates need not be hesitant to start campaigning more openly. In a chat I had with him last week, former bank governor Mark Carney – the Liberal best positioned to give the party a fresh break from the Trudeau years – left the impression that should the right circumstances present themselves, he was prepared to jump in.
News of Public Safety Minister Dominic Leblanc, Mr. Trudeau’s long-time pal, holding a meeting to explore a leadership bid created a recent stir. Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne appears to be working harder than anyone, asking Liberals across the country for their support.
But many Liberals, as Mr. Dhaliwal and Mr. Downe noted, aren’t pressuring Mr. Trudeau to leave because they don’t feel another Liberal could do better against Pierre Poilievre.
Precedent for replacing a long-running prime minister shortly before an election is not promising. The abject failures of Tory Kim Campbell and Liberal John Turner, both of whom ran disastrous campaigns, speak to that. But staying too long, as Stephen Harper found out in running against Mr. Trudeau in 2015, is hardly advisable either.
Those who think Mr. Trudeau would do as well as a new leader forget the deep well of personal animosity toward him. A new leader would start without that mountain of anger to overcome.
As Mr. Dhaliwal noted, likeability is a big factor, and the gladiatorial Mr. Poilievre doesn’t score highly on that front. “Canadians don’t like mean-spirited people,” he said. Mr. Poilievre, who has spent his entire career immersed in political combat, is a caustic Conservative as opposed to a chummy one like Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
The prospect of the populist right taking over in Canada in tandem with the potential return of Donald Trump in the U.S. might give a lot of Canadians pause and a new Liberal leader a chance.
But to get that leader, party members need to send a clear message to Mr. Trudeau that this isn’t 2015. It’s 2024, and he’s had a long run – and he need not fall victim to hubris.
He’s done well electorally and, especially for progressives, has made strong advances in the social policy area. But as with so many leaders at the helm for extended periods, he has worn out his welcome. The people want change, and the Liberal Party needs to make that change – pronto.