We’ve reached a “new nadir,” says pollster Frank Graves, reflecting on his latest findings. “Canada’s outlook is the darkest and most divided in our lifetime.”
Is it that terrible? Mr. Graves has been taking the pulse of Canadian public opinion for 30 years. “Scores we are seeing on the country’s direction are the worst we have ever encountered,” he told me. Latest tally? “Seventy per cent of Canadians say the country is moving in the wrong direction.”
Small wonder that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is far down in the polls while the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre are in majority territory. But despite the grim tidings, it appears Mr. Trudeau is intent, though plans could change, on rolling the dice and seeking another term.
Is a resurgence possible? Can he climb out of the dungeon, overcome very long odds and possibly win again?
His paramount problem is cost of living. Here there’s hope. By the time of the next election, the affordability issue could be far less of a burden for him. Inflation, now at 3.1 per cent, has already gone down appreciably and should remain at a reasonably low level.
At the moment, the news hasn’t sunk in. Though inflation has dropped four or five points, 45 per cent in Mr. Graves’s polling said it has gone up. Only 35 per cent knew it had declined.
U.S. President Joe Biden faces a similar problem. His economy is doing well, and inflation is way down, but that isn’t the public perception. In most polls he’s trailing Donald Trump who, as one wag put it, is only a few indictments short of the Republican nomination. On the economy, Bidenites believe it’s just a time-lag problem and the good news will ultimately register.
For Mr. Trudeau, the problem goes beyond time lag. It’s communications. Politics is more and more a propaganda war, and Mr. Trudeau has been battered on that front. In a sign he’s finally clued into how weak his messaging has been, he recently hired a new communications director, Max Valiquette.
In the vitriol department, Mr. Poilievre is the strongest opposition leader since John Diefenbaker. He has thrashed and bullied the Prime Minister, painting him as personally guilty for the country’s every affliction.
Freeland or Carney more popular choices for Liberal leader than Trudeau, survey finds
He’s made Mr. Trudeau own inflation, even though it’s a malaise everywhere and Canada has done better than many peer countries. He’s made him own the housing shortage problem, even though local and provincial governments bear much of the responsibility. While high immigration numbers are a significant contributor, the Conservative Party has been supportive of high immigration.
On the carbon tax, the Trudeau shop has been as pathetic in its marketing of it as the Brian Mulroney government was on the GST. The Conservative Leader says Canadians are losing their shirts on the tax. Given the neutralizing effects of the rebates for lower and middle-income earners, the charge is rubbish.
Most minds are made up about Mr. Trudeau. Changing perceptions will be a formidable task. Against Mr. Poilievre, who goes low, he has no option but to go low as well. It has to be gloves-off, around the clock. He has to tie the Poilievre brand of right-wing populism to how that brand has fared in the U.S. and Britain.
While by no means in Trudeau territory when it comes to public disdain, Mr. Poilievre has a likeability problem of his own. He often comes across as smug and condescending – a spoiled-brat neo-con.
Even if the economy improves and even if Mr. Trudeau starts doing better in the information and disinformation wars, he will still be disadvantaged, having been in office so long, by voter fatigue, the very resonant argument that it’s time for a change.
To buttress himself against that, Mr. Trudeau must revitalize his leadership with a bold new policy framework. If he wants more time as the country’s leader, he must have a compelling policy reason for it. Ideas that poll well, says Mr. Graves, are big infrastructure projects like high-speed rail and a major retooling of the hydroelectric corridor. Very popular is the idea of a far-reaching wealth tax.
A new vision is necessary, and what resonates with the great number of Canadians being left behind, says the pollster, is a narrative of “shared prosperity.”
Coupled with all the aforementioned changes, Mr. Trudeau needs what often determines electoral outcomes: a run of good luck. He needs unforeseen events to work in his favour. Then, odds against him winning would still be long, but not so daunting.
Lawrence Martin