Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Minister of Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs Dominic LeBlanc make their way to a news conference on the investigative efforts related to alleged violent criminal activity occurring in Canada with connections to India, in Ottawa, on Oct. 14.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
Vincent Rigby is the Slater Family Professor of Practice at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University and a former national security and intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The Canadian government’s announcement on Thanksgiving Monday – that it was expelling six Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner – has brought India-Canada relations to their lowest ebb in 40 years.
The RCMP’s revelation earlier in the day that it had evidence of Indian-government complicity in the murder, extortion and intimidation of Canadian citizens exploded like a bombshell. This was no regular RCMP news conference; it came in the midst of a major criminal investigation in which more than 30 people had already been charged, some of them allegedly with connections to Indian diplomats. The RCMP spoke out now because it believed this criminal activity represented a dire threat to Canadian public safety.
India’s immediate response – lashing out at the Trudeau government for “preposterous” and politically motivated accusations while expelling six Canadian diplomats from New Delhi, including the acting High Commissioner – was entirely predictable. It was also possibly the first in a series of tit-for-tat measures by the two governments. Things could get considerably worse before they get better.
India-Canada relations have been strained for years. The deterioration can be traced back to the Air India bombing of 1985, but it reached its nadir under the Trudeau and Modi governments. For India, the central issue has been Ottawa’s perceived unwillingness to tackle Sikh extremism within Canada. When Mr. Trudeau rose in the House of Commons in September, 2023, to suggest there were “credible allegations” linking the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar to the Indian government, the relationship went into a tailspin.
There was a glimmer of hope in June, 2024, when the Canadian and Indian Prime Ministers met on the margins of the G7 Summit in Italy. Mr. Trudeau spoke of a new opportunity to engage with India; at the same time, Indian elections were over, and some expected Narendra Modi to moderate his political rhetoric aimed at Canada.
And now this.
While the RCMP allegations are lacking in detail, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly insists they are based on “ample, clear and concrete evidence.” If true, the Canadian government had no choice but to respond decisively. The alleged criminal activities carried out by the Indian government represent a clear violation of Canadian sovereignty and the rule of law. No government can be allowed to engage in such egregious behaviour on the territory of another country. A clear red line has been crossed.
Of course, this should not come as a surprise. India has long been suspected of foreign interference activities in Canada. And recent events in other countries suggest a similar pattern of behaviour. Washington has been experiencing its own challenges with New Delhi after uncovering a plot involving Indian government agents who allegedly planned to murder an American-Canadian Sikh. India, faced with evidence in an unsealed U.S. indictment, launched an investigation and claimed that rogue elements within its intelligence agency played a role.
New Delhi’s response to U.S. allegations stands in stark contrast to its interactions with Canada. India’s rhetoric in the Canadian case has been inflammatory, its denials insistent (despite repeated efforts by Canadian officials to share evidence with their Indian counterparts) and its actions extreme, from the expulsion of Canadian diplomats last year to the clampdown on visa applications.
Much is at stake in the Canada-India relationship, including increasing economic and people-to-people ties. But Canada is not a superpower and India treats it accordingly. Canada is seen at best as a small power with limited leverage. India is an emerging global power fuelled by a surging economy that is being courted by the West to check Chinese ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. It is feeling confident, increasingly flexing its muscles outside its immediate neighbourhood and sparing no effort to protect its perceived national interests. It believes it can get away with bullying Canada – and up until now, it has.
Canada must do two things in response. First, it must not soften its stance. It needs to show resolve. This episode also proves once again that if the government does not take national security seriously in an increasingly unstable world, Canada will pay the price. Second, Ottawa needs to work closely with its key Western allies. Strong public messaging from our Five Eyes partners condemning Indian actions will be critical. Washington, in particular, must play a more active role in helping find a way forward.
In the meantime, further turmoil in the Canada-India relationship can be expected. Short-term prospects for reconciliation are not good, and there is no guarantee that India will temper its behaviour in the future. But for now, Canada did what it had to do.