Vladyslav Golovin is a Ukrainian journalist and the former deputy chief editor for Forbes Ukraine.
How much longer are you ready to endure the war? This question has been asked regularly to people in Ukraine by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology over the past year and a half, following Russia’s invasion in February, 2022. “For as long as necessary,” the bulk of the participants – 71 to 73 per cent – answered previously. But in the most recent survey, which took place in September and October of this year, the figure dropped to 63 per cent for the first time. War fatigue is starting to set in.
This week, the citizens of Ukraine are marking 1,000 days of living through the war. Ukrainians have experienced constant shelling of cities, and received painful news about the deaths of relatives on the front. Families are divided, lives ruined.
The negative consequences of the war are about more than the destruction, or a number of dead or wounded. It also includes emotional exhaustion, increased anxiety, decreased income, job loss and the disruption of relationships with family and loved ones. Uncertainties are chipping away at the resilience of the Ukrainian people.
What is surprising is not that more people are growing weary of the war, but that this is only happening now, as we are approaching the third year of fighting. The reason for the shift this fall has to do with events on the battlefield. The Russian army is approaching in the east, in the Donetsk region, and they are confidently pushing back the Ukrainian army. The biggest shift in people saying they can no longer support an indefinite war are in this region.
The second biggest city in Ukraine, Kharkiv, is in the east and under attack from Russian missiles and bombs almost daily. In September alone, the city experienced 53 missile and air strikes – a huge increase when compared to the summer months. The mood has shifted in Kharkiv, while at the same time, the attitude of Ukrainians living far from the front lines, in the centre and the western parts of the country, has not changed at all.
Does this mean that the war is nearing its end? Not likely. The war in Ukraine does not depend on how tired Ukrainians are, or how much they want peace or on what terms. President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his team have made hints many times that they are ready for peace talks. In his plan for victory, he does not even mention the need to return to the 1991 borders, which were set at the time of Ukraine’s independence from the USSR. This likely indicates that he is willing to cede some territory to end the war.
At this stage, the trajectory of the war is in Russia’s hands. The Ukrainian army is retreating in the east of the country, so for now, Vladimir Putin has no reason to stop. The only way to force him to sit down at the negotiating table is a military defeat, which isn’t in sight in the foreseeable future. Indecision and doubt are mounting amongst Ukraine’s allies, while Russia’s friends aren’t hesitating to give it weapons and even soldiers. Intelligence services from several countries have already confirmed that North Korean troops are now fighting in the war. This keeps the balance of power on Moscow’s side.
Donald Trump being elected as president of the United States is another piece of bad news for Ukraine. Mr. Trump and members of his team have said many times that the war must be stopped and that he does not intend to support it, which could lead to a reduction in aid from Ukraine’s main and most powerful ally, as well as pressure to settle the war on unfavourable terms.
For Ukrainians, this means that they may lose the territory that Russia has occupied after the ceasefire, while still facing the possibility that it could invade again. If Russia succeeds in expanding its territory, the aggressor will take that as a green light for further aggression. Europe experienced this in the lead-up to the Second World War, and Mr. Putin could repeat Hitler’s path. European leaders need to learn from the mistakes of British prime minister Neville Chamberlain and French prime minister Édouard Daladier, who were sure that appeasement would ease the tensions with the aggressor. Sadly, they were mistaken.