Sanyam Sethi is the vice-president of public affairs at Ipsos. Daniel Bernhard is the CEO of the Institute for Canadian Citizenship.
Last week, the federal government announced a dramatic 21-per-cent reduction to the number of permanent residents Canada will welcome over the next three years, and even sharper restrictions on temporary migration.
On a political level, it’s an easy move. For nearly two years, commentators have bombarded us with their conclusion that Canada admits too many immigrants. They blame immigration for almost every domestic challenge, including housing shortages, health care wait times, inflation – even traffic congestion. Worse, they routinely describe immigration with morbid metaphors such as “runaway train” and “tidal wave” – phenomena that kill everyone in sight. This discourse has sent public support for immigration crashing to 30-year lows.
The casual use of such gruesome imagery is not just in poor taste. It obscures a key fact that deserves far more attention: Canada has a growing problem retaining the immigrants we attract.
Last year, the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC) and the Conference Board of Canada shone a light on Canada’s declining immigrant retention in a landmark report called “The Leaky Bucket.” It revealed that increasing numbers of immigrants have been packing their bags and leaving Canada for almost three decades. But the exodus really picked up steam in 2017, 2018 and 2019 – the most recent years for which data were available. “The Leaky Bucket” gave rise to many more questions that only immigrants could answer.
This week, the ICC and Ipsos are releasing a selection of data from “The Newcomer Perspective,” a massive new survey of 15,383 verified adult immigrants. Among many compelling insights, it delivers immense detail about which newcomers are looking to leave Canada and why. For example, we found that the desire to leave is unevenly distributed; economic immigrants – those who were selected for their ability to contribute to Canada’s shared prosperity – are by far most eager to hit the road.
Over 30 per cent of federally selected economic immigrants – those with the very highest scores under the points system – say they are likely to move to another country within two years, compared to 22 per cent of immigrants admitted under family-reunification programs. Economic immigrants selected by provinces (who tend to have lower scores under the points system) are less likely to consider leaving (21 per cent), but that is still one in five who are planning their exit.
Though immigrants are routinely blamed for driving up housing costs, unaffordable housing is driving skilled immigrants away, with over 80 per cent citing it as their main reason for wanting out. The current line is that there are too many immigrants for our housing supply. Perhaps it’s better to ask whether there are too few houses for the immigrants we need.
Each departing immigrant may represent one fewer renter to compete with, but that’s also one fewer nurse to care for our loved ones, one fewer trucker to keep commerce hustling, or one fewer cybersecurity engineer to protect our economy from crippling attacks, like the one that paralyzed the Toronto Public Library last year.
When you add these leavers to the number of immigrants who will never arrive because of reduced quotas, the prospect of acute talent shortages seems just as likely as the housing shortages that slower population growth is intended to address. This underscores the unavoidable domino effects that arise when trying to solve problems like housing affordability with solutions like reducing the population.
One surprising finding in “The Newcomer Perspective” is that housing affordability is not just the main reason for leaving, but also the main reason why eligible immigrants decline to become Canadian citizens (42 per cent), conclusively outstripping salary inadequacy (38 per cent) and dual-citizenship restrictions (34 per cent). On a more uplifting note, newcomers possess an irrepressible optimism. Though 67 per cent are dissatisfied with their financial situation, 20 per cent will start a business in the next 12 months, 49 per cent will enroll in training to improve their skills, and 23 per cent plan to buy property in Canada.
Immigrants are also very generous to Canada. Whereas just 17 per cent of Canadians give to charity annually, 45 per cent of immigrants donated to Canadian charities last year; another 44 per cent will volunteer this year, and 28 per cent will give blood. These are important reminders of just how much immigrants contribute to Canada’s success.
Immigration intake levels are just half the story. If we want to optimize Canada’s immigration efforts, we must first understand how immigrants fare after arriving. Each departed immigrant is not just one fewer person to house, but also one fewer person to help Canada grow into its full potential.