Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left, and Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump meet in New York on Sept. 27.Supplied/AFP/Getty Images
It wasn’t long ago that a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington was a big deal, something that captured the world’s attention.
Not so much any more.
Sure, people were still interested in what he had to say before the United Nations Security Council and in his meetings with U.S. President Joe Biden last week. But now there is another war that is occupying the planet’s attention, one that threatens to expand and embroil America in a way Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hasn’t.
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza and its recent incursions into Lebanon have been a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s diverted the world’s attention away from Ukraine. The longer the conflict in the Middle East goes on, the more attention the U.S. is going to have to give it. The U.S. will also likely have to back Israel with additional resources, which will give Republicans – tired of sending tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine – the opportunity to say: we have another conflict to concentrate on, one that is arguably of more strategic importance to America’s vital interests.
You have to know that the European Union is also closely watching what the U.S. does over the coming weeks. They know what’s at stake if America pulls back support from Ukraine and Russia prevails in its bid to vanquish its enemy completely.
It would be a disaster.
EU leaders are also aware that a pullback by the States is all but a certainty if Donald Trump prevails in the November election. He’s said that he would lean on his “friendship” with Mr. Putin to reach a negotiated settlement. While that is unquestionably empty bravado – he has no sure plan to end the war there – it definitely suggests he isn’t keen to keep funding Ukraine’s defences either. His running mate, J.D. Vance, is on record saying he doesn’t much care “what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” Mr. Vance believes Europe, not the U.S., should be carrying most of the financial load when it comes to helping Ukraine out.
There is little doubt that Ukraine is petrified by the idea of a Trump-Vance victory. It would amount to a death sentence for the country’s lost territories. Or at least, it would mean it would have to soldier on without the significant resources the U.S. has been supplying – including a US$61-billion aid package that was approved earlier this year. Without American support for Ukraine’s air defences, the country would be hard-pressed to protect its cities from Russian bombardment.
With Ukraine dramatically weakened, Mr. Putin’s forces would be on the march. Why would he acquiesce to any negotiated peace settlement when he could continue fighting, against a much-weakened opponent, and claim even more land – and maybe, ultimately, everything?
The one thing that might tempt Mr. Putin to agree to some kind of truce is the thought of ending the horrific cost that Russian advances have come at. The Economist recently quoted an American official as saying 100,000 Russians have been killed so far, with another 430,000 injured since the start of the war. Ukraine has had far fewer casualties, but has had a harder time replacing those lost in combat.
According to summer polling by a Ukrainian research firm and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, support for the war is beginning to wane among certain demographics in Ukraine. Among those over 60, 54 per cent believe Ukraine is winning the war, compared to just 31 per cent among those between the ages of 18 and 25. Among the older demographic, 60 per cent believe the country needs to keep fighting, while that number drops to 47 per cent among 18-to-25 year-olds. There also seems to be significant support for a negotiated ceasefire, even if it came at the cost of some of the land Russia has taken. The Economist reported one poll finding that if Ukraine were to be admitted to the EU as part of any peace deal, 38 per cent of respondents would be able to accept a restructuring along current front lines.
It all adds up to a country that is growing more tired of the war by the day. Even support for Mr. Zelensky, once an almost god-like figure in Ukraine, has fallen. It was inevitable.
Anyone who believed the Western world would do all it could, for as long as it took, to ensure Mr. Putin’s ruthless gambit in Ukraine failed, has to be depressed by the current state of affairs.
While the war there is far from over, things aren’t trending in the right direction. And if Donald Trump is elected president in November, Mr. Putin could almost assuredly claim victory.