Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban attends a European Union leaders summit, in Brussels, Belgium on Dec. 14, 2023.YVES HERMAN/Reuters
Anna Porter is a journalist, publisher and author of books including Buying a Better World: George Soros and Billionaire Philanthropy. Her latest is the novel Gull Island.
Leonard Wibberley’s The Mouse That Roared is a very funny novel, later turned into a hilarious movie, whose plot involves a small country that decides the only solution to its economic problems is to declare war on the United States, lose and wait for the predictable aid package.
Hungary’s economy has not had a good couple of years.
Last month, the country, whose population is less than 10 million, managed to block the European Union, whose population is more than 447 million, from delivering US$54-billion in aid to Ukraine. It came as no surprise: Viktor Orban, who has ruled Hungary with an iron fist since 2010, announced weeks before that he intended to do just that.
Mr. Orban came to power at the head of the Fidesz Party – the name is an acronym in Hungarian for Federation of Young Democrats and, though they are no longer young and certainly not democrats, they have kept the name. Since his election, the government has implemented constitutional changes that have allowed it to take control of many of the country’s independent institutions, including the judiciary. It has passed anti-immigrant laws, and laws targeting non-governmental organizations and independent journalists. Mr. Orban proudly announced that he intends to run an “illiberal democracy,” and he has certainly shown that he meant at least the “illiberal” part.
During the past several years, he or government-funded organizations have invited to Hungary several opponents of European Union policies. Former U.S. vice-president Mike Pence, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, and Canadian psychologist and author Jordan Peterson have all been welcomed. Former U.S. attorney-general Jeff Sessions complimented Hungary for defending Christianity. In 2021, Tucker Carlson broadcast his virulent anti-Soros tirades from Hungary. Mr. Orban has consistently expressed his admiration for Donald Trump, “the man who can save the Western world,” and Mr. Trump returned the compliment by describing him as “one of the strongest leaders” in the world.
Mr. Orban has been critical of the European Union for years but his annoyance boiled over a year ago when the European Commission froze close to $40-billion of funds that would have flowed to Hungary, had Mr. Orban acceded to demands to restore the independence of Hungary’s judiciary, to protect human rights and academic freedom and – perhaps least welcome to Mr. Orban and his cronies – adopt a series of anti-corruption measures. Those cronies have replaced judges, bought news media critical of the government, and now head almost all institutions, including universities, except for the Soros-funded Central European University, which was forced out of the country. Mr. Orban’s friends and admirers are among the wealthiest people in the country and they benefit from having him in charge. (Lorinc Meszaros, the wealthiest man in Hungary, is a childhood friend of Mr. Orban and was later mayor of Felcsut, the village where Mr. Orban grew up.) Hungary has become the most corrupt country in the EU, according to a 2023 report by Transparency International.
In November, Fidesz announced a “national consultation” – the 13th since 2010. The problem with these national consultations, columnist Janos Szeky remarked to me, is that they are neither national, nor consultations. They are directed at a specific group of Fidesz supporters who are likely to look favourably on questions intended to show that the European Union is not Hungary’s friend. For example, among the 11 questions, Hungarians were asked whether they are in favour of “migrant ghettos” that the EU ”wants to create” in Hungary; whether they approve of EU funding for Palestinian organizations; whether they support the abolition of Hungary’s Child Protection Act; and whether they think Hungary should get its EU funds before any more EU money flows to Ukraine.
The first three questions are not on the EU’s agenda, though the European Commission did sue the Hungarian government in 2022 over a new law that equates “LGBTQ propaganda” with pedophilia and prohibits the publishing of content about homosexuality to minors. The last question is intended to make Hungarians fearful that Ukrainians will take what is rightfully theirs. Given that the country’s economy has nosedived, it’s predictable what the answer will be.
In support of the “consultation,” huge billboards went up all over the country. They display rather unflattering photographs of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and Alex Soros, son of George Soros, whose even less flattering photographs used to grace Fidesz election posters of the past. (Fidesz named its 2018 anti-refugee bill the “Stop Soros” law.) The accompanying text reads: “Let’s not dance to the tune they whistle.” (Mr. Orban has been playing with these words for some time; in a speech last October he said, “We had to dance to the tune that Moscow whistled, Brussels whistles too, but we dance as we want to, and if we don’t want to, then we don’t dance.”)
Peter Kreko, director of the research group Political Capital, said he saw the ad campaign as an “escalation of the government’s anti-EU rhetoric,” not only as a way to impress the EU with the seriousness of Mr. Orban’s threats, but also to signal his position in advance of June’s municipal elections. Mr. Orban does not want liberal urban politicians, such as Gergely Karacsony, the left-leaning mayor of Budapest, to succeed, and he wants to demonstrate nationwide support for his own brand “so that he can threaten the European Union with Huxit,” said Mr. Kreko, even if he has no intention of pulling out of the EU. What use would he be to Vladimir Putin were he not present at meetings where he can push Moscow’s agenda? He’s delayed ratifying Sweden’s membership in NATO, left the room when the EU voted to fast-track Ukraine’s membership application, and blocked the EU’s latest aid package for Ukraine. Mr. Kreko sees Mr. Orban’s antics as a form of blackmail: He wants the EU to deliver the funds it’s still withholding.
Action for Democracy’s David Koranyi told me that he thinks that the EU would be foolish to try to placate Mr. Orban by releasing more funds.
“He may put on a good show of progress with protecting judicial independence, but the latest ‘sovereignty protection’ law, which the Hungarian parliament passed on Dec. 12, betrays his real intentions: rather than ‘protecting’ national sovereignty, the law is a direct attack on independent civil society and free expression. The legislation includes the establishment of an ‘Office for the Defence of Sovereignty,’ with unlimited powers to investigate those suspected of ‘serving foreign interests.’ A page straight out of Putin’s playbook.”
October, as most Hungarians know, is the anniversary of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, when the country tried to shake off Soviet shackles and failed. I still remember the people shouting, “Russkis go home!” Although they left, they came back in early November and slaughtered thousands of Hungarians who were tired of dancing to Moscow’s music. It was in mid-November of 1956 that my mother decided to leave Budapest after a Russian tank on Rakoczi Street took out the balcony and the bedroom of our apartment.
As for how Mr. Orban has remembered ‘56, on Oct. 17 he posed for a photograph in Beijing, shaking hands with Mr. Putin and smiling for the cameras. Perhaps the reason Mr. Putin is not whistling is that it’s hard to whistle while you are grinning.
If the occasion was designed to infuriate other European leaders, Mr. Orban succeeded. Estonia’s Prime Minister accused him of “showing the middle finger” to Ukrainians.
The deadline for the national consultation was this past Wednesday. The results are predictable. The European response is not. They have a choice between acceding to Mr. Orban’s demands for the withheld billions, finding another way to funnel aid to Ukraine, or starting proceedings to expel Hungary from its membership.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article referred to Action for Democracy's David Koranyi by an incorrect given name. This version has been updated.