Samuel McIlhagga is a British reporter and critic covering foreign affairs, culture and political theory.
Keir Starmer, the leader of the British Labour Party and once a radical socialist, will be familiar with the Karl Marx quote that great personages in history appear twice: “The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.”
The British public will now decide which Mr. Starmer represents. Is he a farcical second-coming of Tony Blair, vainly attempting to regain the glory of his predecessor’s 1997 landslide, or a unique, and tragically well-intentioned, politician?
The circumstances may decide that for him. Labour is expected to achieve a significant victory in the general election set for July 4, perhaps equal to Mr. Blair’s total of 418 seats after decades of Thatcherite austerity – but celebrations will be short-lived. The probability of finding effective solutions with Labour’s current policy offerings in the next five years is low. And Mr. Starmer’s almost guaranteed victory may be a poisoned chalice.
Britain’s economic and geopolitical situation is distant from the sunlit uplands of the 1990s; in Mr. Blair’s first year as prime minister, annual GDP growth was 4.9 per cent. But wage growth has been stagnant since 2008, inflation has spiralled, GDP growth is tiny, regional inequality has become massive, productivity has stalled, and homelessness has skyrocketed. In 2008, Britain had a higher nominal GDP per capita than the United States; it now lags behind Canada and the United Arab Emirates.
In the late 1990s and 2000s, the Labour government enjoyed enough economic growth from the financial-services sector in London to fund an expansion of welfare. Now tax burdens are at a 70-year high, and politicians are claiming there is no room for extra spending on the National Health Service or schools. As the journalist Aris Roussinos argues: “We pay Scandinavian taxes for Mediterranean public services.”
Today, Labour has a rare opportunity. It has a massive electorate, especially a young cohort, willing to vote for Mr. Starmer’s party. But it’s not out of enthusiasm – it’s to punish the Conservatives, who have held power since 2010. This appetite for punishment could easily pivot back toward Labour, especially if things don’t improve when it is in power – and in the medium-term, the horizon looks bleak.
The gap between wage increases and commodity inflation is huge; young people cannot buy houses; Victorian-era diseases such as scurvy are returning; local councils face record bankruptcies. A large proportion of essential goods, including energy and steel, are now imported from abroad, after decades of British net exports.
This has all left the country vulnerable to exogenous shocks and supply-chain disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and conflict in the Red Sea. Any further “unprecedented” disruptions will send the economy into a tailspin. Indeed, research and development plunged between 2014 and 2022, and the industrial use of robotics is lower than in most European countries, leaving Britain open to a manufacturing crisis across an already decimated industrial heartland.
As Brexit proved, the population’s political anger can be a resource for ambitious politicians. However, Mr. Starmer has so far appeared unwilling to channel this anger toward productive ends. Instead of offering new policies, he and his shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, are arguing that “at this election, stability is change.”
But for anyone paying attention, stability over the last four decades means one thing: managed decline. If Britain is to avoid economic and social disaster, it needs more than stability: It needs real change. As Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa famously wrote: “Everything must change for everything to remain the same.”
What’s more, Brits appear to have an appetite for change. Polling shows the population is aligned on significant reform, including the nationalization of rail, water and energy companies. Yet Labour has watered down some policy commitments and U-turned on others. If action is not taken to fix the economy, reduce inequality, decrease the cost of assets and strengthen supply chains, Tory chaos will continue plaguing Mr. Starmer in 10 Downing Street.
Britain has maintained a youth vote inclined toward the centre-left, even as young people in the EU turn in significant numbers to right-wing populism, but that can easily change. If Mr. Starmer wants Gen Z’s continued support, he should offer more than “stability.” Otherwise, Nigel Farage and his Reform party will encroach upon that base of under-35 voters with policies on housing, growth and migration.
Mr. Blair’s 1997 victory anthem was D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better. If Mr. Starmer is honest about the mountain ahead, he needs to tell Brits that things can only get worse. For now, Labour is picking a path to tragedy over the Tories’ extended farce.