Former President Donald Trump waves as he steps off his plane at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, in Arlington, Va. on Aug. 3.Alex Brandon/The Associated Press
The number of criminal charges levelled this year against Donald Trump, the runaway front-runner in the Republican presidential primary, has now reached 91.
This twice-impeached former president could be standing trial in as many as four different criminal cases before the election next November. The latest charges in Georgia include violating a racketeering statute, a law customarily used to prosecute mobsters.
The “law and order party,” ipso facto, appears dead set on putting up an outlaw as their standard bearer. Mr. Trump now has a rap sheet longer than a Burmese python. On breaching national security, on obstructing justice, on trying to overturn an election, on hush money payments to a porn star. And for good sordid measure, he was found liable in a sexual abuse case.
And yet, there are still many out there who think, having lost the presidency in 2020, that with these new qualifications Mr. Trump can win back the Oval Office next year.
Evidence from recent times does suggest that Americans’ penchant for irrational decision-making need not be underestimated. But electing someone who could well be on his way to jail? No, Americans are not that unhinged.
As of this moment, Republicans are still flocking to Mr. Trump’s side. It’s a reflection of the locked-in dynamic of American politics. The people are strait-jacketed in allegiance to their parties no matter what they do.
But wait ‘til they see Mr. Trump in the courtroom docket day after day, week after week, in televised hearings that one or more of the cases are likely to have. Wait ‘til they see the drumbeat of credible witnesses spelling out his criminality in graphic detail.
For Watergate, it was the Senate hearings that helped turn public opinion against Richard Nixon. With millions watching, they unravelled his defences.
The indictments against Mr. Trump make Watergate look like a pajama party. The Democrats are being handed what is – or should be – the biggest political gift ever. Visions of an orange man in an orange jumpsuit. What could be better?
Republicans say Mr. Trump is the victim of a legal system that is, as Republican Senator Tim Scott put it, “being weaponized against political opponents.” Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says the charges are “a desperate sham.”
It may be true that some of the charges are an overreach, that the Georgia case has many holes in it, that Mr. Trump will get off on some. But the sheer volume of his alleged depravity makes any claims that “he did nothing wrong,” as put by choirboy Jim Jordan, chair of the House Judiciary Committee, look absurd.
Republican retrogradists are desperate. Having clung to their notorious leader despite all the outrages, despite his having won nothing for them electorally since 2016, they have to proclaim Mr. Trump’s innocence. His future is on the line, and so is his party’s.
It’s true that politics are different now, that Mr. Trump has shattered the norms. So has the revolution in communications; you can’t go by precedent anymore.
And it’s true that the ex-president is scoring points in playing the martyr role, making his followers believe he is waging a crusade for them against the corrupt establishment of elites in the deep state. It’s an effective strategy in having him hold his base. But the base wasn’t enough to carry him in the last presidential election and the two latest midterms, and it certainly isn’t big enough to carry him now.
The big worry for the Democrats is that, despite his gigantic lead – 40 points! – Mr. Trump won’t get the nomination. That the GOP will find a way of reneging on him.
When the cases will be heard is critical. The one in New York involving hush money payments is scheduled to begin on March 25 next year. The classified documents case is set for May 20. For the bigger trials, related to Mr. Trump’s bids to overturn the 2020 election, dates are uncertain. For the federal one, a starting date as early as Jan. 2 has been targeted but not finalized. Georgia case prosecutor Fani Willis is seeking to begin no later than mid-February. But owing to the complexities of this case, that is highly unlikely.
In the meantime, the legal problems confronting Joe Biden’s son Hunter could give the Republicans some whataboutism cover. But Hunter Biden’s alleged offences are minor compared to those of Donald Trump.
If the GOP nominates him, it will be suicidal.