The thought of a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024 mangles the mind. Will one of them be running from a jail cell, the other from a convalescent home?
Dotage-plagued Joe makes 80 look more like the new 90. Democrats fear he’ll do a face-plant every time he walks on or off a stage.
Republicans under the Donald Trump banner, meanwhile, have lost three straight elections: two midterms and a general. Three is also the number of separate sets of criminal indictments he’s been hit with. His 2023 highlight reel also includes being found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case.
Most Americans don’t want either man running. But in their respective parties, both men have astonishing leads as high as 30 or 40 percentage points. The margins look insurmountable, their victories as presidential candidates inevitable. To believe otherwise is contrarian thinking.
But let’s do some. One thing you learn from covering American elections for a long time is to expect the unexpected. Like Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination in 2016 in a mudslide, or Barack Obama overcoming a 30-point deficit to beat Hillary Clinton and becoming the Democratic standard-bearer in 2008.
The parties’ nominating conventions are a year away. Primaries are a half-year off. History instructs that it’s often not who’s on top the year before who triumphs. Rather, it’s who catches fire, big momentum, in the first two or three primaries.
In the cases of Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, their outsized leads are matched by their outsized baggage.
Mr. Biden is an incumbent and incumbents are usually renominated. But there are exceptions. Harry Truman bowed out in 1952 after a loss in the New Hampshire primary to Estes Kefauver, and Lyndon Johnson did the same in 1968 after a poor showing in the same state against Eugene McCarthy.
Joe Biden could change his mind about running again. Pressure from the party, given his embarrassingly low jobs and approval numbers, could convince him to do so. Or health and age could. Or a combination.
There’s also the Hunter Biden controversy – allegations that President Biden improperly used his influence during his time as vice-president to help his son bring in millions for the family in foreign business deals. Corruption claims from Republicans are heating up as a result of congressional testimony from Devon Archer, Hunter’s former business partner. The testimony, says Grand Old Party blowhard Newt Gingrich, “combined with the collapse of the Hunter Biden plea deal in federal court has virtually guaranteed that there will be an expanded impeachment inquiry.” Mr. Biden is also being investigated for wrongful possession of classified White House documents.
Despite being framed as a stumblebum by Republicans, President Biden has had several successes. But they haven’t translated into public support for him. An ominous sign for Democrats is that the disgraced Mr. Trump is even with Mr. Biden in the polls. With only wingnuts like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. currently challenging the President, the nomination race is no contest. But if worsening support brings forth a big-name challenger – look out. The tide could turn quickly against Mr. Biden.
Mr. Trump is also vulnerable. For the first primary debate, two weeks away, he won’t be there to defend himself. Opponents have been hesitant to go after him but look for haymakers to start landing. Does the party really want a three-time losing candidate who is likely to be a convicted criminal come election time?
That thought will emphatically sink in during debates and early primaries. Trials could well be continuing, with Mr. Trump in the box and party stalwarts testifying against him. The atmosphere will be explosive, divisions extreme.
Polls are likely to show that while still popular with his base, Mr. Trump’s chances of being elected in a national campaign are scant. Republicans will react accordingly. His lead is so big it can only go down, and once the slide starts it may not stop. The fight could well extend to the convention next summer, where the reckoning will come.
To be considered is that if the likelihood of a Trump nomination fades, so does the desire of Democrats to put up Mr. Biden as their candidate. He of course beat Mr. Trump in 2020. Against a Republican without the Trump negatives, he is less viable.
As of now, Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden look unbeatable. But eight months from now, the look will be much different. There will be shocks and aftershocks. Victories for the two of them are far from inevitable.